Three weeks after the joint US-Israeli war against Iran began, the conflict has reached a fuzzy state of mixed messages and uncertainty, with Donald Trump's public comments often seemingly contradicted by realities on the ground.
The war is 'very complete, pretty much,' Trump has said, but new American ground forces – including a Marine expeditionary unit - are moving into the region. It is 'winding down', but US and Israeli bombing and missile strikes on Iranian targets continue unabated.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz, the geographic choke point through which 20% of the world's oil export travels, is a 'simple military maneuver', but for now only Iranian-approved ships are transiting the waters.
The Iranian military is 'gone', but drones and missiles are still striking targets in the region, with attacks extending as far as the joint US-UK base on Diego Garcia.
In a Friday evening Truth Social post published while he was flying from Washington to his Florida resort for the weekend, the US president provided a numbered list of American military objectives for the Iran war, which he said the US was 'getting really close' to fulfilling. The items, comprising his most detailed statement on the subject since the war began, included degrading or destroying Iran's military, its defence infrastructure and its nuclear weapons programme, as well as protecting American allies in the region.
Not included was the goal of securing the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump said should be the responsibility of other nations more dependent on oil exports from the Gulf. The president has frequently noted that the US is a net exporter of energy and does not rely on oil from the Middle East – although such a view glosses over the global nature of the fossil fuel market, where price fluctuations directly impact the price at American gas pumps.
Trump's Truth Social post made no call for Iranian regime change, and he did not mention approving the country's next leader or 'unconditional surrender'. His latest outline suggests the US could end its operation with Iran's current anti-American leadership still in power, its oil exports flowing, and its control over the Strait of Hormuz intact.
Military analysts have suggested that the US could be planning to capture Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal, potentially cutting off oil shipments. Trump stated he wasn’t sending ground troops to Iran but added: 'If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you'.
The threat of a US escalation prompted Iran's state media to warn that attacks on Kharg Island would lead to 'insecurity' in the Red Sea and 'set fire' to energy facilities throughout the region.
Earlier this week, reports surfaced that the Trump administration was preparing to ask Congress for $200 billion in emergency funding for ongoing military operations in Iran, suggesting that the White House is bracing for a long, potentially costly conflict.
The initial reaction from Congress, including Trump's Republican allies, was cautious at best. We're talking about boots on the ground... They have got a whole lot more briefing and a whole lot more explaining to do on how we're going to pay for it, and what’s the mission here, said Republican Congressman Chip Roy of Texas.
The so-called 'fog of war' doesn't just cloud military planners' thinking; it also affects perceptions among politicians and the public. The Iran war, it seems, is at a pivotal moment, though its future direction is unclear.
