In brief
Despite the anticipated largest tax refund season in U.S. history, rising gas prices due to the ongoing Iran conflict may leave many consumers worse off this year. Economists predict that lower and middle-income households will feel the most impact, as they spend a higher percentage of their earnings on fuel. Analysts caution that the surge in gas prices could strangle consumer spending and slow economic growth for 2026.
The U.S. economy was projected to enter 2026 with enthusiasm, thanks in part to a significant increase in tax refunds from the previous year’s tax reforms. However, the recent surge in gas prices, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions such as the Iran war, threatens to undermine this financial boost.
President Donald Trump highlighted the forthcoming tax refund season, which is anticipated to be the largest in U.S. history, during a recent prime-time address aimed at alleviating voter apprehensions about the economy.
Despite the optimism, the financial landscape has shifted drastically following the outbreak of conflict in Iran. Gas prices have soared, reaching an alarming nationwide average of $3.94 per gallon, significantly hindering the benefits anticipated from tax refunds.
As the war disrupts oil supplies, prolonged elevated gas prices are expected, which will likely curb consumer spending in sectors such as dining and entertainment—an indicator of economic vitality. Lower and middle-income households, which spend a greater portion of their earnings on fuel, will be particularly hard-hit.
Alex Jacquez from Groundwork Collaborative expressed concerns over the energy shocks affecting those least prepared to bear them, noting the potential absence of tax refunds to cushion the blow.
Economists have adjusted growth projections downward as households face additional financial strain. Rising gas costs could drive average annual household expenses up by approximately $740, nearly matching anticipated tax refund increases.
By March, actual tax refund amounts were falling short of expectations, with averaged refunds recorded at $3,676, just $352 over the previous year.
The ongoing fallout from these high gas prices poses significant challenges to American consumers, who are already navigating changing economic conditions, rising inflation, and stagnant wage growth.
As the year unfolds, experts remain cautiously optimistic that the U.S. economy will continue to grow modestly but warn that consumer resilience could be tested further by sustained gas price increases.
