Rising Russian Casualties in Ukraine Amid Peace Negotiations

Wed Dec 31 2025 08:39:53 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

Amid intensified peace efforts led by the U.S., Russian military losses in Ukraine have surged significantly, with a sharp rise in published obituaries revealing the focus on negotiations with the United States.

Russian casualties in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine have escalated at an unprecedented rate, with a 40% increase in reported soldier deaths compared to the previous year. This rise coincides with renewed U.S. diplomatic efforts to forge a peace deal. The BBC's analysis indicates that approximately 160,000 Russian soldiers have been confirmed killed, with actual numbers potentially much higher. Recent months have seen an uptick in volunteer recruits as the Kremlin seeks to maintain troop levels despite heavy losses.

Over the past 10 months, Russian losses in the war with Ukraine have been growing faster than any time since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, BBC analysis suggests.

As peace efforts intensified in 2025 under pressure from US President Donald Trump's administration, 40% more obituaries of soldiers were published in Russian sources compared with the previous year.

Overall, the BBC has confirmed the names of almost 160,000 people killed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine.

The real death toll is believed to be much higher, with military experts estimating the actual number of casualties to be between 243,000 and 352,000. The significant increase in obituaries serves as a primary indicator of the rising intensity of conflict.

Beginning in January 2025, the number of published obituaries was relatively low but saw a sharp rise in February when Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin communicated directly about potentially ending the war. The publication of obituaries peaked again in August during diplomatic talks between the two leaders in Alaska, and later in October and November coinciding with the U.S. presenting a peace proposal.

The Kremlin's perception of territorial gains as leverage in negotiations with the U.S. has led to strategic military decisions, contributing to the rising casualty figures. Concerns of a rising death toll among volunteer recruits have also emerged, as many who once opposed the war are now being conscripted.

Families and friends of soldiers like Murat Mukashev, who had protested against the war and faced charges in Russia, underscore the complex motivations and pressures faced by individuals enlisting. Mukashev's tragic story, which saw him initially resist military service before ultimately joining the fight, exemplifies the circumstances confronting many Russians today.

As recruitment efforts continue, local governments are incentivizing enlistment through attractive pay packages and targeted campaigns aimed at reducing the apparent political backlash against large-scale mobilization.

The situation remains fluid, with both U.S. and Russian officials emphasizing the importance of ongoing negotiations, while the conflict's human cost mounts every day.