Navigating the Peace Process: Challenges in the Russia-Ukraine Negotiation Landscape
Russia, the US, and Ukraine agree that a deal on ending almost four years of full-scale war is edging closer but, in the words of President Donald Trump, one or two very thorny, very tough issues remain.
Two of the trickiest issues in Washington's 20-point plan involve territory and the fate of Europe's biggest nuclear plant, which is currently occupied by Russia.
The Kremlin concurs with the views that negotiations are at a final stage, and Zelensky is set to meet European leaders in France on January 6. However, any one of the sticking points could jeopardize a deal.
Fate of Ukraine's Industrial Heartland Coveted by Putin
Vladimir Putin has not budged from his maximalist demand for the whole of Ukraine's industrial Donbas, while Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky has offered a compromise.
Russian forces occupy most of Luhansk and over 75% of Donetsk, but Zelensky insists that withdrawing from the region is not a feasible option, considering the significant population ties and legal implications.
He has proposed creating a demilitarized zone, which Russian forces are unlikely to agree to, despite rapid territorial gains claimed by Moscow.
Ukraine's Nuclear Power Plant in Russian Hands
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, crucial yet currently inactive, has been under Russian control since March 2022. The plant's operational future and potential joint management between Russia and Ukraine pose an additional point of contention.
Ukraine demands the zone around the plant be demilitarized, presenting a challenge given Russia's unwillingness to relinquish control over the facility, despite the necessity for external management and cooperation to avert disaster.
Lack of Mutual Trust Despite Positive Rhetoric
Significant hurdles remain due to persistent distrust, with Zelensky openly expressing skepticism regarding Putin's sincerity towards constructive dialogue, while Russia doubts Ukrainian intentions amidst ongoing military tensions.
Other Sticking Points That Could Derail Deal
Key issues persist, such as Ukraine's demand for security guarantees and addressing financial reparations for wartime damages, which Russia has been unwilling to acknowledge, complicating potential agreements.
Potential Referendum on a Deal?
Zelensky asserts that the Ukrainian populace's still overwhelming rejection of concessions regarding Donbas necessitates a public referendum, which Putin claims would only prolong the conflict.
This complex landscape underscores the multifaceted challenges each side faces in resolving differences, with trust and cooperation seeming to be far-off goals.
