Moldova's Election: A Crucial Crossroads Amidst Russian Interference

Tue Oct 14 2025 12:15:16 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)

As Moldova approaches a pivotal election, evidence of extensive Russian interference surfaces, raising significant concerns among voters and local authorities about the integrity of the electoral process.

In a critical election for Moldova, evidence emerges of unprecedented Russian interference, including vote-buying and disinformation campaigns. Prime Minister Dorin Recean and supporters rally against the looming threat, while opposition candidates, including Igor Dodon, challenge the legitimacy of government claims. Amid rising tensions and economic struggles, Moldovans face a crucial choice between pro-European and pro-Russian influences.

The crowd filing through central Chisinau waving EU flags on Friday evening was clear: they believe Russia is trying to steal their election and bring pro-Kremlin politicians to power in Moldova.

Their weapon is money, your weapon is your vote!, was the loudest chant as several hundred supporters of the governing party, PAS, and its pro-European policies joined the final rally before Sunday's ballot.

This week Moldovan police and prosecutors disclosed evidence of election interference on an unprecedented scale: vote-buying and disinformation that they link directly to Russia. They've also uncovered a plot to foment violent unrest, detaining dozens of men who travelled to Serbia for training including in the use of firearms.

Opposition parties dismiss talk of Russian meddling as a political show claiming the government is laying the ground to annul the vote should PAS lose its majority in parliament.

But Moldova took a decisive turn towards EU membership and away from Moscow after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Now the evidence suggests Russia has been investing heavily in restoring its influence. It's trying to claw back control.

Final battle?

Lodged between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova has been independent since the USSR fell apart more than three decades ago. Last summer, it launched EU accession talks in tandem with Ukraine.

Prime Minister Dorin Recean sees these elections as a final battle for his country. There is constant pressure from Russia, he told me, as the pro-PAS crowd broke up after its brief march through Chisinau. They're spending the equivalent of more than 1% of our GDP to overthrow our government - on propaganda and false messages.

The choice for Moldovans

Moldova isn't rich, even in wine-producing spots like this, and huge numbers have left the country to seek better lives and incomes overseas. That's created a diaspora so large, its vote has become decisive. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the surge in energy prices has strained the economy even further – to near zero growth.

Beyond PAS, the choice on Sunday includes the Patriotic Bloc made up primarily of the Socialist and Communist parties. A key member, Irina Vlah, was barred from running on Friday because of allegations of illicit financing.

Another bloc, Alternativa, posits itself as pro-EU but its candidates include the Chisinau mayor who is banned from travel in Europe's Schengen zone for unspecified security reasons. He's appealing the ruling.

Unprecedented interference

The only documented efforts to warp Moldova's elections so far have been by Russia. This is one of the most advanced interference campaigns we've seen, Police Chief Viorel Cernăuțeanu says bluntly. It's also bigger. At last year's presidential elections he says people were being paid up to $40 to vote for pro-Russian forces who then came close to winning. We calculate that Russia invested more than $100 million overall last year, the police chief tells me. Now it's more than three times that amount.
For the Russian side, Moldova is seen as a territory where they should rightfully exercise influence...within the borders of the old empire, explains John Lough, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST), a London-based think-tank.

There's also the chance of a firm toehold inside Europe for more hybrid activity and the potential offered by the breakaway Transnistria region that borders Ukraine. Propped up by Moscow it's still home to a Soviet-era ammunitions store and a contingent of Russian troops.