In brief
President Trump's approval ratings have seen a significant decline as economic concerns rise in light of the ongoing war in Iran. Polling data indicates that public dissatisfaction with economic management may jeopardize his support, especially among independent voters. With midterm elections approaching, the impact of these trends could shape the Republican Party's future.
President Donald Trump's popularity among the American public has been eroding steadily since he returned to the White House last January. While some of this is typical for second-term American presidents, Trump's initial decline also reflects ongoing public dissatisfaction with high prices and cost-of-living – issues that have propelled Democrats to wins in a growing number of elections over the past year.
According to data by election analysis website The Downballot, Democrats did an average of 13% better in contested special elections in 2025 than they did in the same districts during the 2024 presidential election. The war in Iran has only exacerbated these economic concerns.
Polling company Ipsos found that 43% of the American public approved of Trump's handling of the economy at the start of his second term. By 23 June 2025, the number had dropped to 35%, a level it hovered around for the rest of the year.
Three weeks into the Iran war, gas prices have surged to an average near $4 a gallon. Trump's economic approval rating has fallen to 29%, a record low. Economic anxiety contributed to Democratic defeat in 2024 and Republicans controlling the presidency and both chambers of Congress for the past year, and now it appears to be creating a drag on Trump's net approval.
At the start of his second term, according to a polling average by political analyst Nate Silver, Trump enjoyed 52% approval. By February 28, the start of the Iran war, only 42% of Americans had a positive view of him, which sagged to 40% recently.
With midterm congressional elections approaching, the longer the Iran war stretches on and disrupts the global economy—and pushes consumer prices up—the greater the risk for Trump and his party.
At this week’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), right-wing politicians discussed the stakes of upcoming elections, emphasizing that failure to maintain control could lead to a devastating agenda rollback.
Interestingly, while public opposition to military intervention exists, Trump's political base appears to remain relatively supportive, with a Quinnipiac poll noting 86% of Republicans backing U.S. military action in Iran.
As midterms near, independent voters, who were crucial to Trump's previous victory, seem to be leaning away from him, indicating potential challenges for the Republican party in the upcoming elections.
