WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. population is projected to grow by 15 million in 30 years, a smaller estimate than previous calculations, largely due to President Donald Trump’s hard-line immigration policies and an aging population, according to a report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released Wednesday.
The CBO estimates that the U.S. population will reach approximately 364 million by 2056, which is about 2.2% lower than what was projected just a year ago. In a revised demographics report last September, the CBO highlighted how Trump's aggressive approach towards immigration could lead to around 320,000 individuals being removed from the country over the next decade. Without further immigration, the population growth is expected to halt by 2056, with a potential decline starting in 2030.
Demographers are concerned about the potential repercussions of the U.S. population reaching a plateau. Experts like William Frey from the Brookings Institution noted that even if the current immigration restrictions are lifted after the Trump administration, the demographic crisis—characterized by a diminishing workforce—will persist. This situation will intensify challenges for Social Security and Medicare, particularly as the baby boomer generation ages, with all of them over the age of 65 by the end of the decade.
Frey pointed out that limits on immigration and a consequent decrease in fertility rates mean fewer children are expected to be born in the coming years, which is detrimental to future population growth. As the administration ramps up efforts for mass deportations and implements visa bans targeted at specific countries, the impact of these policies becomes increasingly evident.
With immigration constituting a wildcard in population growth estimates, analysts have cautioned that significant changes in immigrant numbers have often led to unpredictable shifts in the overall demographic landscape.
The CBO estimates that the U.S. population will reach approximately 364 million by 2056, which is about 2.2% lower than what was projected just a year ago. In a revised demographics report last September, the CBO highlighted how Trump's aggressive approach towards immigration could lead to around 320,000 individuals being removed from the country over the next decade. Without further immigration, the population growth is expected to halt by 2056, with a potential decline starting in 2030.
Demographers are concerned about the potential repercussions of the U.S. population reaching a plateau. Experts like William Frey from the Brookings Institution noted that even if the current immigration restrictions are lifted after the Trump administration, the demographic crisis—characterized by a diminishing workforce—will persist. This situation will intensify challenges for Social Security and Medicare, particularly as the baby boomer generation ages, with all of them over the age of 65 by the end of the decade.
Frey pointed out that limits on immigration and a consequent decrease in fertility rates mean fewer children are expected to be born in the coming years, which is detrimental to future population growth. As the administration ramps up efforts for mass deportations and implements visa bans targeted at specific countries, the impact of these policies becomes increasingly evident.
With immigration constituting a wildcard in population growth estimates, analysts have cautioned that significant changes in immigrant numbers have often led to unpredictable shifts in the overall demographic landscape.
