Thomasina Clarke has watched school after school close in her once thriving St. Louis neighborhood, which was hit by a tornado this spring and whose population has plummeted in recent decades.

“It’s like a hole in the community,” Clarke said. She fears a new round of closure discussions could strip the historically Black community of a storm-damaged high school, whose alumni include Tina Turner and Chuck Berry. St. Louis Public Schools is among the districts nationwide weighing how many urban schools to keep open due to shrinking budgets, the falling birthrate, and a growing school choice movement.

A district-commissioned report released this year found that the school system has more than twice the schools it needs.

Such decisions are gut-wrenching. It’s a financial strain to operate half-empty schools, but research shows kids often fare badly after closures.

Elsewhere, Philadelphia, Boston, Houston and Norfolk, Virginia, are considering shuttering schools, while a public outcry over potential closures has stopped them — for now — in Seattle and San Francisco.

How many public schools will close?

From 2019 to 2023, enrollment declined by 20% or more at nearly 1 in 12 public schools — roughly 5,100, according to a report published last year by the Thomas B. Fordham Institute.

Public school enrollment is projected to tumble 5.5% between 2022 and 2031. Federal funds allowed many schools to stay open during the COVID-19 pandemic, but that money has run out.

Aaron Garth Smith, director of education reform at Reason Foundation, emphasizes that public school enrollment is on a long-term decline, urging policymakers to adapt.

Chicago closures led to student struggles

In 2013, Chicago closed around 50 schools, resulting in increased violence and bullying among displaced students. Test scores dipped in schools slated for closure, highlighting long-term difficulties.

Possible closures rattle a community

St. Louis Public Schools’ enrollment plummeted from 115,543 in 1967 to 18,122 last year as families exited to the suburbs. With recent tornado damage, further declines are anticipated. Discussions regarding the future of Sumner High School have raised alarms, with educators and community leaders expressing hopes for its revival.

A promising student regains focus

Dakota Scott's journey at Sumner exemplifies the potential educational transformation. From struggling in a preparatory magnet school, she found success and a sense of purpose at Sumner, showcasing the school’s capability to foster positive outcomes even amid challenges.