In brief
In an incisive analysis, Jeremy Bowen critiques President Trump’s instinct-driven approach to the war against Iran, arguing that reliance on gut feelings rather than strategic planning has led to unforeseen complications. As Iran showcases its resilience and retaliatory capabilities, the situation creates a critical juncture for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, with significant global ramifications.
Some old truths about warfare have been knocking on the door of the Oval Office in the month since US President Donald Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent US and Israeli warplanes to bomb Iran. The failure to learn from the past means that Donald Trump now faces a stark choice. If he cannot get a deal with Iran, he can either try to declare a victory that will fool no-one, or escalate the war.
The oldest of the old truths comes from the Prussian military strategist Helmuth von Moltke the Elder: No plan survives first contact with the enemy. He was writing in 1871, a year that marked significant security shifts in Europe akin to the current situation in the Middle East.
Trump's reliance on gut feelings over strategic plans starkly contrasts with wiser historical perspectives. Eisenhower’s advice that “plans are worthless, but planning is everything” encapsulates the necessity of preparation in warfare. Yet Trump's lack of foresight is apparent as he misjudges Iran's responses and resolves.
The Iranian regime, now more resilient than expected, counters with calculated responses, bringing to light the vulnerabilities in Trump's approach. As Trump navigates the tense landscape of warfare, his instinct-driven strategies reveal the profound challenges yet to come.
