The Israeli air strike which killed Iran's security chief, Ali Larijani, has removed one of the Islamic Republic's most experienced and influential policymakers at a critical moment.
Larijani was not a military commander, but he was a central figure in shaping Iran's strategic decisions. As secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, he sat at the heart of decision-making on war, diplomacy, and national security.
His voice carried weight across the system, particularly in managing Iran's confrontation with the United States and Israel.
After the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February, Larijani struck a defiant tone, signaling that Iran was prepared for a long conflict.
His death, now confirmed by state media, comes amid a broader campaign in which several senior Iranian officials and commanders have been killed within a matter of weeks. This pattern suggests a sustained effort to weaken Iran's leadership structure during wartime.
Despite his hardline stance against the West, Larijani was often described inside Iran as a pragmatist. He combined ideological loyalty with a technocratic approach, favoring calculated strategy over rhetoric.
He remained deeply skeptical of engagement with Western powers but was also involved in key diplomatic efforts, including acting as an envoy in Iran's long-term cooperation agreement with China.
At the time of his death, Larijani was managing three major crises: the ongoing war, a wave of domestic unrest, and Iran's nuclear programme. His removal leaves these issues unresolved and transfers them to an as-yet-unknown successor facing an extremely fragile situation.
While Iran has shown resilience, partly by disrupting global energy markets, its airspace remains open to continued strikes. Any new senior figure will face immediate risk of being targeted.
This may shift power further towards the military, as recent remarks by President Masoud Pezeshkian suggest that military units have been given broader authority in light of leadership incapacitation. This could lead to more abrupt decisions but with less central coordination.
In the short term, the likely outcome is a more volatile situation with a harder military posture and harsher repression at home. However, a system continuously losing senior figures may struggle to function effectively in a large country like Iran.
The impact of Larijani's death, therefore, is not just about the loss of a single official. It deepens a leadership crisis that could affect both the course of the war and the stability of the Iranian state itself.
