This is a time for us to engage America, manage China, cultivate Europe, reassure Russia… wrote Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar in his 2020 book, The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World.
For over a decade, India has positioned itself as a pivotal player in a multipolar world, balancing relationships with the US, Russia, and China. However, recent geopolitical shifts have put increased strain on this balancing act.
As India navigates its position, Trump's evolving stance from supporter to critic poses challenges, particularly regarding India's continued oil purchases from Russia amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. Trump’s critiques and increasing tariffs highlight a fracturing trust that complicates relations.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping suggests pragmatic diplomacy over triumphalism, as India finds itself caught between Western alliances like the Indo-Pacific Quad and memberships in Eastern blocs like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
Experts acknowledge the importance of India’s strategy of strategic autonomy, which allows it to play various sides against each other to maintain leverage and mitigate risks. However, many argue that India’s capacity often lags behind its aspirations, with economic and military checks in place.
As tensions with China and an uncertain relationship with the US shape India's foreign policy outlook, India's approach continues to raise questions about the balance between independence and the necessity of alliances in the face of global uncertainties.
Critics suggest that engaging with China at this time may serve to only reiterate India’s constraints and reliance, yet managing these dynamics will remain a central focus for its future strategic direction.
Thus, the stakes are high for India in maintaining its global ambitions amid a shifting landscape, where patience and strategic flexibility might just be its most robust policy tools.