Western Reliance on Russian Fossil Fuels Fuels Ukrainian Conflict

As Russia's war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, Western nations have reportedly paid more for Russian hydrocarbons than they have provided in aid to Ukraine. High fossil fuel revenues keep Russia's military operations funded, leading campaigners to call for more stringent sanctions and measures to combat this financial support.

In the fourth year of its full-scale invasion, Russia is reaping significant financial benefits from fossil fuel exports to the West, which continue to support its military initiatives in Ukraine. Since the onset of the invasion in February 2022, Russia has earned over three times the revenue from hydrocarbon sales compared to the assistance provided by Ukraine’s allies.

Current analysis indicates that Ukraine has received less financial aid from its Western partners than Russia has made from selling oil and gas. Despite sanctions imposed by various nations, including bans from the US and UK, the EU's restrictions have proved less definitive, particularly concerning natural gas, which remains a vital component of Russia's finances.

Data collected by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) shows that from February 2022 to the end of May 2025, Russian fossil fuel exports generated over €883 million ($973 billion), of which €228 billion came from sanctioning nations. Notably, a considerable portion of these revenues stems from the EU, which had continued to import pipeline gas until transit was diminished in early 2025.

While efforts to limit these imports have been made, in 2024, Russian revenues from fossil fuels experienced only a marginal decline. Increased gas exports to Europe, particularly through channels like Turkey, further complicate the sanctions regime. The EU has yet to implement the strictest possible sanctions against Russian hydrocarbons, largely due to fears of escalating conflict and its short-term impacts on energy prices.

Campaigners argue that many Western policymakers remain hesitant to take robust actions against Russian fossil fuels, primarily due to concerns over rising global energy prices. A phenomenon known as the "refining loophole" has also allowed Russian oil to enter sanctioning countries after processing in third-party refineries, further complicating sanctions enforcement.

Experts suggest that stronger enforcement of existing sanctions would impede Russia’s ability to fund its military operations. Suggestions range from directly cutting Russian LNG imports to addressing the inefficacies surrounding the laundering of oil through refiners.

Moreover, discussions surrounding U.S. plans to lower oil prices have met skepticism, with experts insisting that such strategies are unlikely to diminish Russia's military funding and may even harm the U.S. shale oil industry more significantly.

As the situation persists, environmental advocates and strategists highlight the paradox of supporting both military resistance in Ukraine and inadvertently financing the aggressor. The geopolitical landscape remains deeply affected by energy dependencies, leaving room for further actionable changes in policy to assist Ukraine while curtailing funds driving the conflict.