France's parliament – deadlocked for a year and more poisonously divided than it has been in decades – looks set to throw out yet another prime minister on Monday.

But the acute sense of drama surrounding this latest vote of confidence inside Paris's Assemblée Nationale is counterbalanced by a despondent consensus that the almost inevitable removal of 74-year-old François Bayrou, after nine relatively ineffectual months in office, will do nothing to break France's political stalemate.

It's a disaster. The situation is absolutely blocked, veteran political commentator Bruno Cautrès told the BBC.

Others have been even harsher in their diagnosis.

Marine Le Pen, parliamentary leader of the hard-right National Rally party, accused Bayrou of committing political suicide.

The prime minister, a consensus-seeking figure from south-west France with a tendency to frown and to bluster, initiated Monday's surprise vote himself, seeking, as he explained it, to shock politicians into agreeing on a way to tackle the country's looming debt crisis.

Describing France's spiraling national debt as a terribly dangerous period… a time of hesitation and turmoil, Bayrou warned there was a high risk of disorder and chaos if parliament failed to back his austerity budget with its aim to slash government spending by €44bn (£38bn).

But Bayrou's gamble – variously characterized as a kamikaze gesture and an attempt to end his political career with a heroic act of self-sacrifice – looks almost certain to end in failure later on Monday.

More likely is another attempt to find a path towards a functioning minority government. Speculation continues about who Macron might choose as his next prime minister, while challenges loom, including increasing calls for protests from groups dissatisfied with political leadership.