Just seven days after he made the fateful decision to launch his coup against the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi on 1 February 2021, General Min Aung Hlaing made a promise; to hold elections, and return to civilian rule, within a year.
It has taken him five years to fulfil that promise.
Today, the newly-elected parliament will choose him to be the next president. Min Aung Hlaing has already stepped down as armed forces commander, as required by the constitution before he can take the post of president.
But this is civilian rule in name only.
The parliament, sitting for the first time since the coup, is filled with his loyalists. With the armed forces guaranteed one quarter of the seats, and the military's own party, the USDP, winning nearly 80% of the remaining seats in an election which was tilted heavily in its favour, this was a preordained outcome. More of a coronation, than an election.
Military men are also likely to dominate the new government when it is formed. Min Aung Hlaing has ensured that a staunch ally, General Ye Win Oo, a hardliner with a reputation for brutality, replaces him at the head of the armed forces.
He has also created a new consultative council, which will exercise paramount authority over civilian and military affairs. He is ensuring that in taking off his uniform, he does not dilute his power.
For many in Myanmar, little will change because the country remains in the grip of its military leaders.
For young activists like Kyaw Win – not his real name – all hope of change has gone. As a student he was arrested for taking part in a flash mob protest against the coup in 2022, and tortured for a week, before being jailed. He was only recently released.
Kyaw Win says his commitment to the revolution, as the activists call it, is unchanged, but he feels unable to do much now from inside Myanmar. He is planning to seek work outside the country.
The five years since Min Aung Hlaing's coup have been a catastrophe for Myanmar.
His decision to use lethal force against the mass protests which broke out across the country ignited a civil war which has killed thousands and displaced millions.
This is a long-standing military tactic in Myanmar, known as the four cuts, intended to devastate communities that support insurgent groups. With Chinese and Russian help, the junta has now recaptured some of the ground lost over the past two years.
As he presided for the last time over the spectacular parade the Myanmar armed forces hold every year in the capital Nay Pyi Taw, we listened carefully for any hint in his speech of reflection or regret over the damage his coup has caused. There was none.
Min Aung Hlaing’s coup has dealt a staggering blow to the economy. The UN estimates that more than 16 million people are now in need of life-saving assistance. The country imports 90% of its oil and petroleum products, and fuel shortages due to regional conflicts are exacerbating the situation. Without a path to dialogue or peace, the ongoing stalemate seems set to continue.
