In brief
Negotiators from Russia, Ukraine, and the US are set to meet in Abu Dhabi, marking their first trilateral talks since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. While these discussions present high stakes, there's a prevailing sense of limited expectations, with core differences remaining unaddressed. Only time will tell if this meeting can bridge the gap toward meaningful peace.
Negotiators from Russia, Ukraine, and the US are due to meet in Abu Dhabi for their first trilateral talks since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Senior officials from all three nations are involved, but it is unclear whether they will be in the same room together at any point. And whilst the talks take a new format, the core differences remain the same.
The stakes are high, but expectations are limited.
Donald Trump is pushing hard for a peace deal in Ukraine – the one he promised but hasn't yet delivered – and he said this week that the two sides would be stupid if they couldn't agree.
But despite some intense shuttle diplomacy by his own envoys, they are hosting the first trilateral talks between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators with some major issues still unresolved.
Ukraine is engaging with the process because it wants peace more than anyone, but also because it needs to keep the US onside. It learned that lesson the hard way last year, when Donald Trump briefly suspended intelligence sharing and military aid.
Now, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says his talks with Trump in Davos were really positive and he hopes for more air defence support against Russia's relentless attacks as a result.
Often grim-faced after his encounters with the US leader, this time Zelensky seemed unusually upbeat. But he remains cautious on the outcome of talks in the United Arab Emirates.
He's described the meetings, which may last two days, as a step, but shied away from calling it a positive one.
For a while, Zelensky has talked about being 90% of the way to producing a framework deal for peace, but the final 10% was always going to be the hardest - and Russia could still reject the whole thing.
Ukraine insists that Russia should not have control over parts of the eastern Donbas region, which are key to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The other big issue up for discussion in the UAE is what the US would do, militarily, if Russia were to invade Ukraine again someday. That's what Ukraine calls its security guarantees, and says are essential.
As the teams prepare to gather, the situation on the ground remains critical. The mayor of Kyiv has urged citizens to leave the city, anticipating continued aggression targeting critical infrastructure amidst the deepening winter.
