At this year's UN climate summit (COP30), under way in Brazil's Belem city, all eyes are on India - the world's third largest carbon emitter.
India has not yet submitted a key climate plan that countries are required to do every five years, even as international assessments have deemed India's climate action as being worryingly inadequate. Delhi has argued otherwise.
Known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the updated plan from each member country to the UN Framework Climate Convention (UNFCC) is expected to have more ambitious carbon reduction targets as the world has failed to make the required level of cuts to avoid dangerous global warming.
So far, around 120 of the 196 member countries of the UNFCCC have submitted their updated plans and India is among the remaining ones.
The Paris climate agreement signed in 2015 has the goal of limiting average global temperature rise to well below 2C and to strive for 1.5C to avert drastic climate change.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says that by 2035, annual emissions will have to be reduced by 35% and 55%, compared with 2019, to align with the goals of the Paris agreement.
But emissions have continued to rise almost every year since then, and the climate plans submitted to the UNFCCC until 10 November show that there will be emissions reduction of only around 12% by 2035 – that too if countries fully implement their policies.
UNEP warns that current emission policies put the world on track for 2.8C of warming this century, underscoring the need for far more ambitious carbon-cutting targets.
The first deadline for the updated climate plan (NDC3) was February, but it was extended until September as more than 90% of member countries failed to meet it.
All eyes were on top emitters like China, India and the European Union, also because US President Donald Trump once again announced his country's exit from the Paris agreement, leaving the world wondering if other major emitters would offer to plug the gap.
But many countries missed the September deadline too. While some began to submit their plans before COP30, there were expectations that the remaining would do so during the climate meet in Belem.
Some have done so, but India kept the world guessing until environment minister Bhupender Yadav, who led the country's delegation in Belem, told the media this week that Delhi would submit its plan only by the end of December.
So, why has India delayed submitting its climate plan, even though it could mean inviting negative press during COP30?
Though it has not explained its stance, Delhi appears keen to highlight a view shared by many developing nations: that rich countries bear historic responsibility to slash emissions and provide far greater financial support to the developing world.
A week before COP30 kicked off, Yadav wrote an opinion piece in the Economic Times newspaper where he argued that global climate progress can't come from endless discussions alone.
For too long, the world has been caught in a cycle of negotiations, while the planet's distress signal grows louder. While dialogue is important, action is imperative, he wrote.
During India's statement at COP30, Yadav expanded on this argument, emphasizing that developed countries must reach net zero far earlier than current target dates and deliver new, additional, and concessional climate finance at a scale of trillions, not billions.
Indian officials, like many negotiators from the developing world, assert that updated climate plans with more ambitious carbon reduction targets will mean little without financial and technological support from richer countries.
The Paris climate agreement necessitates developed countries to provide financial support to developing nations, but this remains a contentious issue.
The last COP in Baku, Azerbaijan, saw unrest among developing nations when wealthy countries pledged $300 billion annually as climate finance by 2035 while poor countries demanded over $1 trillion.
Developing nations also seek clarity on the provision of the $300 billion, criticizing developed countries for potentially relying on private finance that could further burden poorer countries with loans.
Some wealthy nations argue that fast-emerging economies like China and India should also help contribute to global climate finance.
The best way to make sure that Europe can sustain that [the climate finance it has been providing] is by inviting others who have the ability to do so… to chip in, stated Wopke Hoekstra, climate commissioner at the European Commission, at a COP30 press conference.
Without directly naming any country, he pointed out that many emerging economies have higher GDP per capita than most European member states.
India believes it should not be pressured for a more ambitious climate plan as it is already benefitting from a crucial pledge: achieving 50% of its electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources ahead of the 2030 deadline.
While global assessments praise this achievement, they also highlight significant hurdles.
Climate Action Tracker, which measures government climate action against the Paris agreement, has rated India as highly insufficient in its climate targets and actions.
It notes that coal still represents around 75% of India’s electricity generation—a stark contrast to the needed drop to at least 19% to meet global temperature goals of 1.5C.
Another report at COP30 emphasizes India's heavy reliance on coal, indicating that further commitments are necessary for a sustainable transition.
According to the UN emissions gap report, India experienced the largest increase in greenhouse gas emissions in 2024, following closely behind China and Indonesia.
However, as India remains non-committal, China—historically aligned with India on climate negotiations—has already submitted its updated climate plan.
COP30 is also deliberating on a potential roadmap for a global transition away from fossil fuels.
It remains uncertain whether India's significant reliance on coal will alter its updated climate plan, but the nation has pledged to submit its revised commitments before the year’s end.
