Study Indicates Gaza War Death Toll Significantly Underreported

A UK-led study indicates the Palestinian death toll from the Gaza war might exceed official figures by a substantial margin, revealing underreporting of casualties and raising questions about the accuracy of data from the Hamas-run health ministry.

The ongoing conflict in Gaza has led to increasing scrutiny of the reported death toll, with a new UK-led study published in The Lancet suggesting that the actual figures could be significantly higher than the official counts provided by the Hamas-run health ministry. The research, which covers the first nine months since the war began on October 7, 2023, estimates that approximately 64,260 Palestinians perished due to traumatic injuries by June 30, 2024. This represents an under-reporting of fatalities by about 41%.

The discrepancy in reported death tolls has sparked a heated debate, particularly as the UN has indicated trust in the health ministry's numbers, which do not differentiate between combatants and civilians. A recent UN report found that women and children comprised the majority of verified casualties during a six-month period. Conversely, Israel claims that the figures from Hamas cannot be relied upon, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) asserting that over 17,000 terrorists have been neutralized, though the methodology for arriving at this figure remains unclear.

The challenge of verifying the situation on the ground is exacerbated by restrictions on international journalists in Gaza, complicating fact-checking efforts. The researchers employed a statistical technique called "capture-recapture," traditionally used to assess mortality in other war zones. By analyzing data overlap in various death counts, they inferred that the death toll from traumatic injuries could indeed be higher than the health ministry's records.

Current reports from Gaza's health ministry claim daily updates of death tolls compiled from hospital casualties, family reports, and reliable media sources. Still, the study's estimates range between 55,298 and 78,525, notably exceeding the health ministry's reported figure of 37,877. The final count is subject to variation based on the research methods employed, particularly regarding the identification of deaths caused by traumatic injuries.

Significantly, the study revealed that 59% of fatalities for which demographic data is available were women, children, and the elderly. This toll stems from the violent outbreak triggered by a Hamas attack, claiming about 1,200 Israeli lives, with subsequent military action resulting in high civilian casualties. The health ministry recently reported that 46,006 Palestinians, predominantly non-combatants, have lost their lives due to the Israeli offensive.