Ambitious plans for a potential summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky face significant hurdles, just days after former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism regarding the proximity of such a meeting. Various locations, including Geneva, Vienna, Budapest, and Istanbul, are currently being considered as possible venues; however, the last time both leaders shared a room was in 2019, prior to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Trump hinted at "arrangements" for the summit, suggesting that a recent conversation with Putin indicated his openness to meeting Zelensky. However, an official Kremlin statement presented a more nebulous interpretation of that exchange, with Putin's aide, Yuri Ushakov, signaling that the discussion may only involve discussions about elevating the level of representatives attending.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz commented that a meeting might occur "within the next two weeks," but he expressed doubt regarding Putin's willingness to attend, urging for pressure to be applied for participation. Trump also noted the potential consequences for Russia should Putin decline to engage in the peace process, although he did not provide specific details.
Despite the surface-level openness from Moscow to participate in bilateral discussions, underlying complications exist. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that a meeting is conditional upon resolving all "issues" at the highest level, a vague stance that the Kremlin has historically used to counter Ukrainian proposals for dialogue.
In a recent statement, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff suggested Russia had agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine, which many now believe come with stipulations that echo proposals previously dismissed by Kyiv. Such a framework could effectively curb Western military support for Ukraine, leaving it vulnerable to future aggression. Zelensky has made it clear that any summit must follow guarantees endorsed by Kyiv’s allies, likely excluding Russian influence, which is unacceptable to the Kremlin.
Currently, both sides appear entrenched in their respective positions, each blaming the other for stalling negotiations. Despite the slim chances of a summit, speculation about potential meeting locations continues. Budapest remains a focal point, with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto offering the city as a host, although skepticism exists regarding its neutrality given Hungary's historical ties to Russia and Prime Minister Viktor Orban's lack of support for Ukraine.
Zelensky himself has remarked on Budapest's unhelpful role in supporting Ukraine, making any discussions there appear challenging. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also voiced disapproval of Budapest as a location, due to negative historical implications tied to a 1994 summit.
French President Emmanuel Macron suggested Switzerland as a neutral ground, while Zelensky has indicated Vienna as a possible venue. In light of a recent International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant against Putin, both Austria and Switzerland have confirmed they would offer him immunity should he attend peace talks, further opening the doors for dialogue.
Turkey is another option, as it previously hosted multiple rounds of negotiations, albeit without yielding substantial progress. Additionally, the Vatican and Saudi Arabia have also been mentioned as potential hosts for discussions.
Beyond political maneuvering, the conflict continues to escalate, with Ukraine reporting a strike against an oil refinery in Russia’s Rostov region. Russia, on the other hand, has conducted significant airstrikes on Ukraine, underscoring that there are currently no indications from Moscow of a willingness to engage in constructive discussions to resolve the ongoing conflict. Zelensky emphasized the necessity of external pressure to advance peace efforts.
