Thailand's Constitutional Court strikes again, removing yet another prime minister from office.
The country's notoriously interventionist panel of nine appointed judges has ruled that Paetongtarn Shinawatra violated ethical standards in a phone call she had in June with the veteran Cambodian leader Hun Sen, which he then leaked.
In it, Paetongtarn could be heard being conciliatory towards Hun Sen over their countries' border dispute, and criticising one of her own army commanders.
She defended her conversation, saying she had been trying to make a diplomatic breakthrough with Hun Sen, an old friend of her father Thaksin Shinawatra, and asserted that the conversation should have remained confidential.
The leak was damaging and deeply embarrassing for her and her Pheu Thai party. It sparked calls for her to resign as her biggest coalition partner walked out of the government, leaving her with a slim majority.
In July, seven out of the nine judges on the court voted to suspend Paetongtarn, a margin which suggested she would suffer the same fate as her four predecessors. So Friday's decision was not a surprise.
Paetongtarn is the fifth Thai prime minister to be removed from office by this court, all of them from administrations backed by her father. This has given rise to a widespread belief in Thailand that it nearly always rules against those seen as a threat by conservative, royalist forces.
The court has also banned 112 political parties, many of them small, but including two previous incarnations of Thaksin's Pheu Thai party, and Move Forward, the reformist movement that won the last election in 2023.
In few other countries is political life so rigorously policed by a branch of the judiciary.
In this case, it was the leaked phone conversation that sealed Paetongtarn's fate.
It is unclear why Hun Sen chose to burn his friendship with the Shinawatra family after he reacted angrily to a comment by Paetongtarn calling the Cambodian leadership's use of social media to push its arguments unprofessional.
Hun Sen described it as an unprecedented insult, which drove him to expose the truth. However, his decision led to a political crisis in Thailand, inflaming tensions over their border, which recently erupted into a five-day war that resulted in over 40 casualties.
The Thai constitution now mandates that members of parliament select a new prime minister from a very limited list. Each party must have named three candidates before the last election, and Pheu Thai has now exhausted two after the court's dismissal of Srettha Thavisin last year.
Their remaining candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, has little public profile and is in poor health. Conversely, Anutin Charnvirakul from the former Bhumjaithai party, which withdrew from the coalition over the call leak, could pose as a potential candidate, but would have to rely greatly on Pheu Thai to form a government, which lacks stability.
Additionally, the largest parliamentary party, those formerly in the now-dissolved Move Forward who have reformed as The People's Party, has pledged not to join a coalition, opting to remain in opposition until a new election occurs.
A new election seems to be an obvious solution to the current political dilemma, yet Pheu Thai is hesitant. After two years in office, they have failed to fulfill economic promises.
Despite her youth, Paetongtarn has struggled to assert real authority, with many Thais perceiving her father as the one making significant decisions.
The Pheu Thai party's ambitious policies, including a digital wallet initiative and plans to legalize casinos, have faltered, drawing widespread criticism.
Amid rising Thai nationalism due to the border conflict with Cambodia, suspicions surrounding the Shinawatra family's loyalties have increased, suggesting they may prioritize business over national interests.
The party's popularity has dipped significantly, and it seems probable they would lose many of their 140 seats if an election were held now. The once unassailable electoral force of the Shinawatra family appears to be on the brink of losing its long-standing dominance in Thai politics.
