Analyzing the Safety of Air Travel: Are Crashes on the Rise?

Despite alarming incidents in media and social platforms, investigations indicate a downward trend in air accidents in the US and globally. Experts assert that air travel remains one of the safest modes of transport.

After a notable uptick in high-profile aviation incidents, such as a mid-air collision near Washington DC and a dramatic landing mishap in Toronto, fears have spread across social media, leading many to question the safety of air travel. In response, US Transport Secretary Sean Duffy assured the public during an interview with CBS News that the recent wave of air disasters represents a unique anomaly rather than a trend.

Data from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) shows a steady decline in air accidents in the US, despite an increase in flight volume over the last two decades and a decrease in January 2025 incidents in comparison to previous years. Further analysis from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) supports this finding, demonstrating a global drop in accidents per million plane departures between 2005 and 2023.

Although regional spikes have occurred—most notably in 2014 due to two tragic Malaysian Airlines disasters—statistics indicate that worldwide fatalities from air accidents have overall decreased. However, the prominence of catastrophic events lingers in the public consciousness, amplified by viral social media posts and troubling images.

Experts note that while significant incidents may appear clustered, they don’t signal an overarching decline in aviation safety. Ismo Aaltonen, former chief air disaster investigator for Finland, emphasized that many incidents stem from unforeseeable circumstances rather than systemic failures. Increased coverage and awareness via modern platforms, including TikTok, have further contributed to public anxiety around aviation accidents.

Attention to the Boeing 737 Max has also heightened concerns, following multiple reports of safety issues, including a mid-flight door incident in January 2024. Despite the scrutiny, authorities conduct thorough investigations into all crashes, enriching pilot training with updated data from such occurrences, while regulatory bodies enforce strict safety standards for airlines.

In reality, air travel remains significantly safer than other forms of transportation. Figures from the US Department of Transportation for 2022 show that over 95% of transport-related fatalities occurred on roads. Even when considering fatalities per distance traveled, air travel appears more secure, with only 0.001 deaths per 100,000 miles for airlines compared to 0.54 in vehicles.

As safety measures evolve and awareness expands, experts encourage travelers to recognize that ground transport, often the most dangerous portion of their journey, poses greater risks than the flights themselves.