Liberal Front-Runner Emerges in Poland's Presidential Election

The liberal mayor's win could be pivotal for policies aimed at reversing previous government initiatives.

Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, has captured a narrow victory in the first round of Poland's presidential election, which many see as crucial in the country’s political landscape. With 30.8 percent of the votes according to early exit polls, Trzaskowski leads but was unable to achieve a majority, facing an intense challenge from Karol Nowrocki, a candidate affiliated with the hard-right Law and Justice party, who garnered 29.1 percent.

As the election progresses to a runoff scheduled for June 1, Trzaskowski recognizes the uphill battle to secure the presidency. The competition is further complicated by the presence of two additional right-wing candidates, collectively receiving approximately 21 percent of the votes cast. This suggests that the conservative and far-right factions could command a significant majority in the second round.

In his speech to supporters after the polls closed, Trzaskowski acknowledged, “there is much work ahead of us,” as he plans to navigate the intricacies of the Polish presidency, which, while mostly ceremonial, holds veto powers. These powers could pose challenges to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government efforts to dismantle the policies enacted by the previous administration, led by the Law and Justice party, which had been ousted in the 2023 elections.

Tusk aims to combat the rising tide of right-wing populism across Europe and restore essential democratic values, including judicial independence and media plurality. The election is particularly significant as the new president will succeed Andrzej Duda, a key Law and Justice ally, who has previously vetoed successful legislation from Tusk’s coalition.

On the campaign trail, Trzaskowski has focused on expanding his appeal beyond urban voters to incorporate voices in rural areas that historically supported the Law and Justice party. Recently addressing a gathering in rural regions near Ukraine, he emphasized his vision of a “strong and united” Poland for all citizens.

Reporting from Warsaw, Andrew Higgins, the East and Central Europe bureau chief for The Times, covered this pivotal political moment, showcasing the implications for Poland’s future under potential liberal governance.