In brief
The ongoing conflict in Gaza could lead to a power vacuum, potentially allowing warlords and criminal groups to emerge as dominant forces in the region as Hamas's governance weakens.
In the wake of the ongoing violence in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas, a critical question looms over the region: what will happen once the fighting ceases? Recent developments signal a troubling possibility for Gaza's future—one that is characterized by lawlessness and the rise of alternative power structures led by warlords and criminal organizations. Wartime environments are prone to the emergence of black markets and criminal syndicates, and Gaza is no stranger to these phenomena. In a notable incident this November, a convoy of 109 United Nations aid trucks was intercepted and looted by armed assailants. The proliferation of black-market tobacco trade has become increasingly problematic, with reports of organized gangs raiding humanitarian convoys in pursuit of valuable contraband like smuggled cigarettes, which can fetch up to $30 each. While Israel's military aims to dismantle Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s administration has shunned proposals for the Palestinian Authority to step in as a governing body for Gaza. The fallout from Hamas's declining control could potentially leave the territory in a state of governance vacuum—especially concerning, given the group's history of oppression alongside its administrative role.The risk is palpable: without a unified governing body, Gaza may descend into "criminal governance," where mafias and armed factions take over essential government functions across regions, exacerbating the conflict. This chaotic scenario could lead to territorial carve-outs by different armed factions, resulting in a fragmented control reminiscent of warlordism, where local strongmen exert influence over their realms.
