In brief
Scientists warn that unless immediate measures are taken, the world could face dire consequences from rising temperatures and extreme weather.
According to projections from the European climate service, 2024 is "virtually certain" to be the hottest year recorded, characterized by extreme heatwaves and destructive storms. This dramatic rise in global average temperatures could exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, marking a significant threshold that has never before been breached in a single calendar year. The escalating temperatures are predominantly attributed to human-induced climate change, coupled with the natural influences of the El Niño weather pattern.As we approach the upcoming UN climate conference, COP29, in Azerbaijan, there is growing concern among scientists and experts. Liz Bentley, the chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, emphasized the urgent need for governments to recognize this alarming trend and to take decisive action against climate change. The year 2024 has witnessed remarkably high temperatures throughout its initial ten months, and the likelihood of a dramatic decline by year's end seems almost impossible. Current estimations suggest that temperatures may reach at least 1.55C above pre-industrial averages. The term "pre-industrial" refers to the period from 1850 to 1900, which serves as the baseline for measuring human impact on the climate, particularly through fossil fuel consumption.If 2024's temperatures surpass the previous record of 1.48C set just last year, it would highlight a troubling milestone in climate history. This occurrence would mark the first time a single year has crossed the 1.5C threshold since almost 200 nations committed under the Paris climate agreement in 2015 to limit long-term warming to this figure to prevent severe climate repercussions.While breaching 1.5C for a calendar year does not invalidate the Paris Agreement, it represents a step closer to long-term temperature increases. Alarmingly, the UN has recently projected that the world could see temperature rises of over 3C this century if current policies persist.Furthermore, the anomalous warmth experienced earlier in 2024 was significantly heightened by the El Niño phenomenon, which is characterized by elevated surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. However, after this phase concluded in April 2024, remarkably high temperatures continued to dominate. Data from Copernicus indicates that record daily average temperatures have occurred continually over the past week.Looking ahead, climatologists anticipate the onset of the cooler La Niña phase, which theoretically should lead to a temporary decrease in global temperatures. However, due to the persistent rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, experts caution that new records are likely to be set in the near future. "With the warming conditions, we can expect storms to become more potent, heatwaves to intensify, and heavy rainfall events to escalate, ultimately impacting people globally," warns Ed Hawkins, a professor of climate science. "Achieving net-zero emissions remains the only avenue to stabilize temperatures and mitigate the escalating costs associated with climate-related disasters."
