Trump's Crucial Moment: Tennessee's Special Election
They're coming to Tennessee to try to take a congressional seat.
Tennessee Republican Party Chair Scott Golden offered this warning to party faithful last week at the Cumberland County Lincoln Day Dinner in the tiny town of Crab Orchard.
Over a dinner of turkey, ham and mashed potatoes, and after a keynote speech by an actual Abraham Lincoln impersonator, Golden noted that a 2 December special election to fill an open congressional seat has put his state at the centre of the American political universe - Democratic resources are pouring in.
Earlier this month, the Democratic Party chair held a rally in the district. And last Tuesday, former Vice-President Kamala Harris visited campaign workers at a canvassing event.
Why am I in Tennessee? she asked the crowd. Because I know the power is in the South.
The district at issue should be reliably conservative. Donald Trump won there by 22 percentage points in last year's presidential election. But both Republicans and Democrats are acting like the race is much closer - and political forecasters agree.
Sources roundly agree that Nashville Democrats are ravenous at the prospect of an upset, while many Republican voters are unaware an election is even taking place, writes Matthew Klein of the Cook Political Report.
The election comes as cracks have appeared in Trump's grip over his party on a number of issues - culminating in conservative firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene's surprise resignation from Congress on Friday night.
No matter which way the political pendulum swings, Republican or Democrat, nothing ever gets better for the common American man or woman, she said in her resignation speech.
The outcome in Tennessee alone won't flip control of the closely divided House of Representatives. But a Republican loss could prompt a panic within party ranks at a time when Trump is vulnerable and many conservatives are glancing nervously at next year's midterm congressional elections.
The results could also reveal a shifting political landscape even in the heart of Trump country – and hint at how the Republican Party is slowly coming to grips with a world after Trump.
Republicans are going to have to start thinking about the future, said John Geer, a political science professor at Nashville's Vanderbilt University. It's going to be hard to do, but at a certain point they're going to see it in their electoral interests.
