Potential Consequences of US Military Action Against Iran: Exploring Seven Scenarios

Thu Jan 29 2026 21:25:25 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

As tensions rise, experts analyze the potential outcomes of a US strike on Iran, ranging from targeted military actions to regime changes and regional chaos.

With the US military poised for possible strikes against Iran, experts have outlined seven potential scenarios. These range from precision airstrikes aimed at minimizing civilian casualties to broader implications such as regional conflict, retaliatory strikes, and the potential for a humanitarian crisis. A lack of clear strategy in the event of military actions raises concerns over the future stability of the Middle East.

The US appears poised to strike Iran within days. While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is not. If no last-minute deal can be reached with Tehran and President Donald Trump decides to order US forces to attack, what are the possible outcomes?

1. Targeted, surgical strikes, minimal civilian casualties

US air and naval forces conduct limited, precision strikes targeting military bases of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Basij unit, ballistic missile launch, storage sites, as well as Iran's nuclear program. An already weakened regime is toppled, transitioning eventually to a genuine democracy, although this scenario is considered highly optimistic given past interventions in the region.

2. Regime survives but moderates its policies

This scenario suggests a "Venezuelan model" where swift US action leaves the regime intact but forces it to tone down its policies, impacting support for violent militias and domestic nuclear programs.

3. Regime collapses, replaced by military rule

Many analysts believe this may be the most plausible outcome. Despite widespread discontent, a strong security structure prevents opposition from toppling the regime, potentially leading to a military government led by IRGC figures.

4. Iran retaliates by attacking US forces and neighbors

Iran has stated it would retaliate against any US attack, potentially utilizing its ballistic missile capabilities against US bases in the region or allied countries.

5. Iran retaliates by laying mines in the Gulf

The past has seen Iran threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, posing a risk to global oil supplies and impacting world trade significantly.

6. Iran retaliates, sinking a US warship

Although unlikely, a coordinated attack using drones and fast boats could overwhelm US defenses, leading to significant naval losses and geopolitical fallout.

7. Regime collapses, replaced by chaos

The potential for civil unrest is high, echoing the crises in neighboring countries and raising concerns about a humanitarian emergency, should ethnic tensions and armed conflicts arise in a power vacuum.