Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived for a two-day visit to India, where he was embraced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of an annual summit held by both countries.

Delhi and Moscow are expected to sign a number of deals during the visit, which comes months after the US increased pressure on India to stop buying Russian oil.

It also coincides with US President Donald Trump's administration holding a series of talks with Russia and Ukraine to resolve the ongoing war.

India and Russia have maintained close ties for decades, and Putin and Modi share a warm friendship. This article explores their mutual interests and the anticipated outcomes of their meeting.

A Special Friendship, Trade Deals, and Geopolitics

Relations with India are pivotal for the Kremlin for several reasons:

  • a population of nearly a billion and a half.
  • economic growth exceeding 8%, making India the world's fastest-growing major economy.

India's rise as a significant market has led to a substantial increase in oil imports from Russia, which surged from 2.5% before the Ukraine invasion to over 35% currently, propelled by discounted Russian prices. However, the US government is less favorable towards this arrangement, having slapped additional tariffs on Indian goods, arguing it funds Russia's war efforts.

Weapons sales remain a key priority for Moscow, dating back to Soviet times, with India anticipated to procure advanced military equipment during this visit.

Further complicating matters, the Kremlin's moves are a clear statement against Western efforts to isolate it due to the Ukraine conflict.

Test of Modi's Strategic Autonomy

Putin's visit comes at a crucial juncture for Modi and India’s aspirations on the global stage. Modi faces mounting pressure from Western powers to rebuke Russia due to the ongoing war. His job is a delicate balancing act: strengthening ties with Russia while keeping the door open with Western nations.

Despite the significant uptick in oil imports, Modi's administration is expected to seek balance in bilateral trade to resolve existing trade imbalances, notably looking beyond just oil and defense.

As Putin and Modi meet, all eyes will be on what agreements are struck and how Modi navigates this complex geopolitic landscape.