India's monsoon has turned wild. Half of the country is reeling under floods after extraordinary downpours, with Punjab facing its worst deluge since 1988. Some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan saw rains more than 1,000% above normal in just 24 hours, according to the Indian Meteorology Department (IMD).
Between 28 August and 3 September, rainfall in northwest India was 180% above average, and in the south, it was 73%. More heavy rain is forecast across large parts of the country this week. The rains have caused landslides and floods in several parts of the country, inundating villages and towns and killing hundreds. But how did the rainfall become so intense?
Changing Monsoon
The climate crisis is changing the behaviour of the monsoon. Scientists say one of the main changes is that there is a much higher amount of moisture in the air now, from both the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea due to a warmer climate. Typically, monsoon rains were steady and spread evenly over the four months - June, July, August and September - but now they often occur in huge volumes within a short time after prolonged dry spells.
Experts have noted an increase of cloudbursts, especially in mountainous regions, which has led to extensive damage in the Himalayan states of Uttarakhand, Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh.
Westerly Disturbances
In August, prolonged heavy rains lashed states like Punjab and Haryana, attributed to the interaction between the monsoon system and westerly disturbances, which carry cold air and enhance precipitation. Akshay Deoras, a research scientist, explains that this interaction can heavily intensify rainfall, a phenomenon compounded by climate change altering global wind patterns.
Unstable Mountains
Unstable mountain environments exacerbated by extreme rainfall also contribute to flooding, as rapid glacier melting and unstable snowpacks create dangerous conditions. Rainfall has increasingly penetrated higher reaches, destabilizing mountains and creating conditions for floods.
Human Impacts
Human activities complicate the situation further; settlements encroach upon floodplains, altering water courses. Infrastructure development, such as highways and hydropower plants, deepens vulnerabilities.
Addressing these issues proactively is essential to mitigate the disastrous impacts of the increasingly severe rainfall patterns.