Western Fossil Fuel Dependency: Fueling Russia's War on Ukraine

Despite sanctions, Russia has generated substantial revenue from fossil fuel exports to Western nations, surpassing financial aid provided to Ukraine. Campaigners call for more stringent measures to end this dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, citing the ongoing conflict's implications for global energy markets.

In the fourth year of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia remains financially buoyed by substantial fossil fuel exports to the West. Since the onset of the conflict in February 2022, Russia has amassed over three times the revenue from these exports compared to the aid received by Ukraine from its allies. Data analyzed by the BBC indicates that the financial contributions from the West to Russia's war effort are significant—outpacing monetary support for Ukraine.

Russian oil and gas are critical to the country’s war efforts, constituting nearly one-third of state revenue and more than 60% of exports. Although sanctions were imposed following the invasion—most notably by the U.S. and the U.K.—Europe's reliance on Russian hydrocarbons led to a paradoxical situation. As of late May, Russia secured approximately €883 billion ($973 billion; £740 billion) from fossil fuel sales since the war escalation, with around €228 billion stemming from countries that enforced sanctions.

While the EU has limited Russian crude imports, pipeline gas continues to flow, especially to Hungary and Slovakia. New data shows Russian gas exports to Europe actually increased, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports reaching unprecedented levels—half of which were directed to the EU.

The EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas indicated that some member states are hesitant to impose stringent bans on Russian oil and gas, fearing potential escalation or short-term financial repercussions. Notably, the latest sanctions do not target LNG, although the EU is progressively developing a plan to eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027.

Campaigners argue that the demand for fossil fuels complicates efforts to curb Russian revenue streams. According to experts, a critical issue stems from the “refining loophole” where Russian oil, after being processed in third countries, reemerges in marketable forms for sanctioning nations. This has been identified particularly in Turkey and India, raising concerns about the effectiveness of current sanctions.

Experts like former Russian deputy energy minister Vladimir Milov emphasize that more rigorous enforcement of sanctions is vital. They advocate for ceasing LNG imports and closing loopholes to stem the flow of funds to Russia. Analysts also suggest that the EU is capable of reducing its dependency on Russian LNG without significant adverse effects.

In discussions, some commentators have dismissed the notion that lowering oil prices through OPEC would end the war, arguing that this would primarily harm the American shale oil industry instead of Russia. As activists point out, the dilemma persists: Western nations inadvertently fund both the aggressor and the resistance in this conflict, underscoring a broader moral and practical crisis linked to global energy dependency.