Key Insights from the New US-Ukraine Resource Agreement

A recent agreement between the US and Ukraine outlines joint access to the country's natural resources and sets the stage for continued military assistance. Key points highlight the absence of repayment obligations for Ukraine and the acknowledgment of its EU aspirations, all while ensuring US interests are represented.

The US and Ukraine have recently formalized a long-awaited agreement granting Washington access to Ukraine's extensive natural resources. This deal is aimed at establishing an investment fund that Ukraine hopes will secure ongoing US support as it faces ongoing conflicts with Russia, three years after the invasion. Here are some significant takeaways from the newly published agreement and statements from both governments.

**No Expectation for Ukrainian Repayment:** Despite previous assertions from former President Trump suggesting that Ukraine should reimburse the US for aid—totaling approximately $350 billion (£264 billion)—Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal clarified that the deal absolves Ukraine from any such debt.

**Mineral Wealth and Beyond:** While the focus has been on Ukraine's mineral resources as a major asset, the deal also encompasses oil, natural gas, and additional hydrocarbons. This signifies a modest shift in Ukraine's previous stance, as these resources were not included in earlier drafts of the agreement.

**Stronger US Stance on Russia:** The tone used by US officials in announcing the deal reflects a firmer posture against Russia, explicitly mentioning "Russia's full-scale invasion" and prohibiting any actors who have supported the Russian military from benefiting from Ukraine's reconstruction.

**EU Aspirations Unhindered:** Concerns had existed regarding whether the resources deal might affect Ukraine's desire to join the European Union. The agreement reassures that it aligns with Ukraine's EU ambitions and stipulates that any renegotiation needed for EU accession will be approached in good faith.

**Military Contributions Remain a Focus:** Highlighting the urgent need for continued military assistance, the deal suggests that the US may provide additional defense resources, including air defense systems, despite Trump's previous inclination to reduce military aid.

**Fragility of US Commitment:** Notably, the agreement lacks firm guarantees of security from the US, raising questions about the sustainability of support. This conditional backing implies potential vulnerability in Ukraine's alliance with its key partner.

**Investment Profits for Ukraine's Reconstruction:** The Ukrainian government proposes that for the first decade, all profits from the reconstruction investment fund will be reinvested into the country's economy, although specific terms remain subject to future discussion.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that this deal signals to American taxpayers the opportunity for their investment to yield returns while aiding the Ukrainian people. The deal's framing by Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller marks it as a form of "repayment" for the substantial support provided to Ukraine thus far. As the world watches, the implications of this agreement will unfold amid the ongoing conflict and shifting geopolitical alliances.