An analysis led by epidemiologists points to a staggering discrepancy in casualty estimates from the ongoing conflict in Gaza, suggesting the situation is far worse than previously reported.
Gaza Casualty Reports Underestimated by Over 40%, Study Shows
Gaza Casualty Reports Underestimated by Over 40%, Study Shows
New research indicates death toll from Gaza conflict may exceed 64,000, challenging existing figures.
Research conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has revealed that the death toll in Gaza, attributed to the conflict within the first nine months, may have been underestimated by more than 40%. Published in The Lancet, the study claims that an estimated 64,300 Palestinians have died due to traumatic injuries, significantly surpassing the 37,900 reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
This discrepancy raises serious concerns regarding the reliability of casualty reporting in the region. The United Nations has relied on data from the Hamas-led Ministry of Health, which faces accusations from Israel of being inflated. However, this new analysis posits that the reported figures fall dramatically short of the reality on the ground.
The analysis highlights that the reported death toll corresponds to approximately 2.9% of Gaza’s prewar population, revealing that one in 35 inhabitants has fallen victim to the conflict. It is crucial to note that this estimate does not include war-related deaths from malnutrition, water-borne illnesses, or the overall breakdown of the healthcare system as the warfare escalates.
Interestingly, the study found that a significant percentage—around 59%—of those killed were women, children, and individuals over the age of 65. However, the analysis did not specify how many among the deceased were combatants.
Mike Spagat, an expert known for his work in estimating wartime casualties, corroborated the new findings, asserting that the casualty figures from Gaza are likely lower than the actual numbers. This underscores the need for continued scrutiny and transparency in casualty reporting within conflict zones, as accurate data is vital for humanitarian responses and international awareness.
This discrepancy raises serious concerns regarding the reliability of casualty reporting in the region. The United Nations has relied on data from the Hamas-led Ministry of Health, which faces accusations from Israel of being inflated. However, this new analysis posits that the reported figures fall dramatically short of the reality on the ground.
The analysis highlights that the reported death toll corresponds to approximately 2.9% of Gaza’s prewar population, revealing that one in 35 inhabitants has fallen victim to the conflict. It is crucial to note that this estimate does not include war-related deaths from malnutrition, water-borne illnesses, or the overall breakdown of the healthcare system as the warfare escalates.
Interestingly, the study found that a significant percentage—around 59%—of those killed were women, children, and individuals over the age of 65. However, the analysis did not specify how many among the deceased were combatants.
Mike Spagat, an expert known for his work in estimating wartime casualties, corroborated the new findings, asserting that the casualty figures from Gaza are likely lower than the actual numbers. This underscores the need for continued scrutiny and transparency in casualty reporting within conflict zones, as accurate data is vital for humanitarian responses and international awareness.
