Mounting Tensions in South Sudan Threaten a Return to Civil War Following Treason Trial

Fears that South Sudan - the world's youngest nation - could plunge into a new civil war have intensified after the party of suspended Vice-President Riek Machar called for regime change. The call came after Machar - currently under house arrest - was charged with murder, treason, and crimes against humanity.

His party, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement In Opposition (SPLM-IO), has denounced the charges as a political witch-hunt aimed at dismantling a 2018 peace accord that ended a five-year civil war. Meanwhile, extra troops from neighbouring Uganda have been deployed to South Sudan's capital, Juba, adding to the rising tensions.

The latest crisis aligns with a UN report accusing South Sudanese officials of stealing billions in oil revenues, leaving millions of citizens without essential services and fueling the ongoing conflict.

Background

South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011 but has struggled to maintain peace. Just two years post-independence, a civil war erupted over political disputes that led to around 400,000 deaths and displaced 2.5 million people. The peace agreement reinstated Machar as vice-president, part of a unity government that has since faltered in critical aspects.

Crisis Escalation

The current crisis began in March when violent clashes between the White Army militia and government troops escalated. Shortly thereafter, machar and his associates were accused of inciting rebellion, prompting their house arrest. The new wave of charges against Machar have amplified frustrations within his party that labels Kiir's administration as dictatorial.

Corruption Issues

A UN report has highlighted rampant corruption within South Sudan’s political elite, having siphoned around $25.2 billion in oil revenues since 2011, resulting in significant humanitarian needs. This systemic theft exacerbates the situation, with reports suggesting funds meant for public welfare have been squandered through opaque dealings.

Future Prospects

As the country stands at a precipice, concerns grow that renewed fighting could erupt, potentially leading to proxy conflicts within the region. Observers note that while troop mobilization has not been confirmed, the situation remains highly volatile as Machar’s upcoming trial approaches amidst increasing military presence in Juba.