India on Alert as Bangladesh and Pakistan Strengthen Ties

The evolving relationship between Bangladesh and Pakistan amidst political changes in Dhaka is drawing significant attention, particularly from India.

Bangladesh's recent initiative to improve ties with Pakistan has taken observers by surprise, notably following significant political upheaval in Dhaka. The latest development saw Bangladesh importing 50,000 tonnes of rice from Pakistan, marking the first time the countries have engaged in direct trade after decades of strained relations. This overlap includes the revival of military connections and simplified visa processes aimed at fostering deeper collaboration.

The reestablishment of ties between the once adversarial nations comes in the wake of Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina being ousted last year. With ties previously characterized by animosity dating back to Bangladesh's independence struggle in 1971, experts perceive the current diplomatic warmth as an attempt to counterbalance India's influence in the region.

Humayun Kabir, a former senior diplomat from Bangladesh, notes, "The relationship seems to now be returning to that of 'two normal neighbours.'" Influential figures in both nations have expressed aspirations to maintain this growing intimacy, fostering an environment for increased direct flights and joint military exercises.

For India, which shares a complex historical narrative with both Pakistan and Bangladesh, the changing dynamics present a substantial security concern. Relations between Dhaka and Delhi have cooled following Hasina's removal from power, raising alarm as India has yet to respond to Bangladesh's demands for her extradition in light of various corruption allegations she faces.

Some analysts believe that the renewed relationship between Bangladesh and Pakistan serves as a calculated maneuver against India's regional dominance. With growing military cooperation, highlighted by bilateral discussions and participation in multinational naval exercises, the potential for more collaboration remains high.

Yet amidst these developments, tensions linger over historical grievances, particularly those related to the 1971 war. Bangladesh continues to seek a formal apology from Pakistan for past atrocities committed during the conflict, a move that Islamabad has not shown willingness to entertain.

While the complexities of history persist, economic analysts advocate for a focus on enhancing trade relations that currently hover below $700 million. There is a significant opportunity for growth, as the substantial population of Pakistan presents a promising market for Bangladesh, provided political and tariff barriers can be minimized.

As Bangladesh approaches a general election, the possibility of a new government may alter foreign policy directions entirely. Regardless of the political trajectory, the unfolding relationship between Bangladesh and Pakistan is one that India will continue to monitor closely, as stability in the region remains crucial for New Delhi's strategic interests in the northeastern states.