In brief
With the US election approaching, Canadians and Mexicans are apprehensively eyeing the political landscape, knowing that the outcome could significantly affect trade relations and economic stability in their countries.
As the United States prepares for an important presidential election this November, citizens from neighboring Canada and Mexico are watching anxiously. The outcome of the election is expected to have reverberating effects that could influence trade, economics, and diplomatic relations across North America. In Fort Erie, Ontario—a Canadian town located just across the border from Buffalo, New York—political discussions are typically avoided, according to resident Ernie, 85, who quips, “You don't talk politics and you don't talk religion.” However, as the US election date nears, even casual gatherings at local bars like Southsides Patio Bar & Grill often erupt into political debates. Bartender Lauren notes, “It happens, especially after a few drinks,” suggesting that as tensions rise, so too do conversations about U.S. politics.Meanwhile, in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, Sofia Ana waits in line to cross into El Paso, Texas, seeking better work opportunities. She represents a wave of about 500,000 Mexicans who travel legally into the United States for employment each weekday. For Ana, the potential outcomes of the American elections feel personal. “It affects us deeply… it is very intense,” she remarks from her car.With over 155 million American voters set to cast their ballots, the stakes are high, especially for Canada and Mexico, which are heavily reliant on trade with the US. In 2022, bilateral commerce between the United States and Mexico reached $807 billion, while trade with Canada hit $782 billion. Trade dynamics, therefore, could shift depending on whether current President Biden retains power or if Donald Trump returns to the Oval Office, where he has previously proposed imposing significant tariffs on imported goods.In Juárez, shop owner Adrian Ramos reflects on the unpredictability of American political changes, stating, “We’ve seen it all.” He anticipates that the election results will impact his small business, regardless of who wins. “If Trump wins, it’s going to take longer to cross over to the States,” he explains, underscoring the potential hassles that could ensue from increased tariffs and heightened border regulations.Canadian farmer Dave Braden expresses his primary concern about a potential Trump-led administration. He fears the consequences that could follow if tariffs were implemented, remarking, “The worry with Trump is that he'll introduce a policy [such as tariffs], and just say ‘get on with it’ and that is threatening.” The Canadian Chamber of Commerce shares similar worries and notes that tariffs of even 10% could cost citizens on both sides of the border hundreds each year.Despite growing apprehensions, public opinion is mixed. Some Canadians continue to support Trump and believe he would bolster the economy. However, general sentiment shows that Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys greater favor amongst Canadians in light of her stance toward trade and relations.The upcoming USMCA renegotiation in 2026 is also a looming concern, with potential shifts in American policy influencing not only trade agreements but also immigration and security issues. Canadian Minister for Innovation, Science, and Industry, Francois Champagne, acknowledges the importance of constantly monitoring election developments, emphasizing the intertwined nature of the US-Canada relationship. Scholars like Lila Abed notice that whatever the election’s outcome, urgent topics such as migration, security, and trade will demand immediate attention. “The tone and the policies will naturally differ depending on who wins the White House,” Abed asserts, but the essential agenda between the US and Mexico will remain unchanged.As Election Day approaches, the intertwined economies and close geographical proximity continue to put Canadians and Mexicans on high alert, awaiting the results that could reshape their futures.
