In brief
Researchers modelling cervical cancer trends to 2050 found that global cases would climb 20.2% to over 1.08 million and deaths 39.3% to 522,000, largely driven by an 88.7% rise in sub‑Saharan Africa. No region is expected to meet WHO elimination targets, underscoring the need for expanded HPV vaccination, screening and treatment.
SYDNEY, Nov. 3 (Xinhua) – A modelling study published in Nature Medicine has found that global cervical cancer cases and deaths are likely to climb sharply by 2050, even though the disease is largely preventable.
The research, carried out by Australian and international scientists, analysed cervical cancer incidence, mortality and related health loss across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023 before projecting trends to 2050.
In 2023, an estimated 887,000 new cases of cervical cancer were diagnosed worldwide, with 369,000 deaths reported. Those figures, the study notes, represent the most recent data used to model future burdens.
By 2050 annual cases are forecast to rise 20.2 percent from 2024 levels to about 1.08 million, while deaths are projected to increase 39.3 percent to roughly 522,000, the study reports. The Australian Science Media Center summary of the research noted these figures would be reached if current trends continue.
Sub‑Saharan Africa is expected to experience the steepest increase, with cases projected to climb 88.7 percent and deaths 95.4 percent, reaching an estimated 206,000 deaths in 2050. The modelling study attributes this surge to limited vaccination and screening coverage in the region.
The study highlights that none of the seven global regions assessed is likely to meet the World Health Organization’s cervical‑cancer elimination threshold by 2050. The threshold requires fewer than four cases per 100,000 women, the authors note.
"None of the regions will meet the WHO elimination target of less than four cervical‑cancer cases per 100,000 women by 2050 if current trends continue," the authors wrote.
To curb the projected rise, the researchers called for greater access to human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, screening and treatment worldwide. They point out that access to these interventions varies widely across income groups.
In 2023, the age‑standardised incidence rate of cervical cancer was more than four times higher in low‑income countries compared to high‑income ones, while the mortality rate was more than seven times higher, the study found.
The modelling emphasises that, despite the preventable nature of cervical cancer, the 2050 outlook would be markedly better if vaccination coverage expanded and screening programmes were scaled up, especially in the hardest‑hit regions.
