Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - within two weeks or so - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
I don't want to have a wasted meeting, President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. I don't want to have a waste of time, so I'll see what happens.
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
We have to get Russia done, he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearly four years.
Less leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump has said he is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu, positioning him with unique influence over Israeli politics. Add in his political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In contrast, Trump's leverage in the Ukraine conflict is significantly diminished. Over the past nine months, he has fluctuated between attempts to strong-arm both Putin and Zelensky, all with little apparent effect.
While threatening sanctions on Russian energy exports and promising military aid to Ukraine, Trump has hesitated, recognizing the potential disruption these actions could cause to global stability. Furthermore, he has publicly criticized Zelensky, temporarily cutting off aid before reconsidering under pressure from European allies.
Despite Trump's claims of effective deal-making in person, negotiations with both leaders have failed to yield a resolution.
Putin may be using Trump's eagerness for talks as a tactical advantage, evidenced by summits called just as Trump seemed poised to approve sanctions against Russia.
As negotiations fluctuate, Trump has moved from considering military aid for Ukraine to planning his summit with Putin, and now is pushing for a ceasefire – a proposal rejected by Russia.
As Trump acknowledges the complexity of the Ukraine situation, he reflects on his initial promise to end the conflict quickly, now recognizing that such a resolution is much more elusive than anticipated.
