A simple fact: no Atlantic hurricanes have formed at all in September 2026 – a stark contrast to the usual storm-heavy month.
The quiet season is not due to a lack of potential but to the shadow of a blindingly strong El Niño, which has been the main factor keeping storms at bay.
National Hurricane Center forecasters now predict a mere eight to fourteen named storms for the season, with only three to six becoming hurricanes, and one to three turning into major hurricanes. With the peak of the season behind us, that translates to an increasingly likely zero‑hurricane outcome.
A recent study shows the eastern North Pacific has already produced nine hurricanes – the most in the basin this year – a clear sign of El Niño’s influence.
El Niño throws a wrench into Atlantic weather by upping upper‑level wind shear, which tears apart developing thunderstorms before they can organise into tropical systems. In contrast, the warmer Pacific waters give ships of fury an energy boost, flooding the eastern Pacific with storms.
For those monitoring the 2026 season, the forecast is clear: stay in the loop and be ready for El Niño’s counterpart, when it deepens a few more months later. Even a single storm could still grip coastal communities unknowingly.
We’ve included an interactive display for those who want to see the real‑time correlation between El Niño strength and Atlantic hurricane activity.
For more in‑depth coverage, check out the BBC’s comprehensive reports on the late‑season wind patterns and the evolving El Niño peak forecast.
