Trade and Diplomacy: Modi and Trump Set for Key Talks in Washington

As Modi visits Washington, discussions will likely navigate the intricacies of trade agreements, tariff reductions, and visa policies, aiming to strengthen US-India ties amidst global geopolitical challenges.

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Washington for talks with President Donald Trump this week, the atmosphere may reflect camaraderie, but there are pressing issues on the agenda that will require delicate handling. The bond between Trump and Modi has flourished since their first meeting in 2017, characterized by significant public rallies and aligned strategies against the shared challenge of China. Despite Trump's critical tone towards various nations, he has consistently shown a favorable stance towards Modi, setting a hopeful backdrop for their discussions.

The engagement will include Modi meeting key members of the Trump administration and American business leaders, potentially including Elon Musk, as Modi seeks to enhance India's burgeoning electric vehicle sector. Despite the friendly exchanges, the visit will highlight a transactional aspect to their relationship, with both leaders poised to put forth specific demands.

To navigate these negotiations, India has already taken steps that are expected to be crucial during the talks. Delhi has hinted at lowering tariffs, repatriating undocumented Indian migrants, and increasing purchases of American oil. These preemptive actions aim to mitigate the possibility of Trump imposing additional requests during the visit, especially in light of the substantial trade deficit the US faces with India, which has been nearing $46 billion in recent years.

In response to potential demands from Trump for further tariff reductions, Modi might advocate for bilateral discussions aimed at crafting an economic partnership agreement. This would center on reducing tariffs on both sides, capitalizing on the willingness of Delhi to engage in trade negotiations—a stark contrast to the more stringent conditions noted during the Biden administration.

One of the tricky topics could be the repatriation of undocumented Indians, particularly as estimates suggest a population of over 700,000 in the US. Additionally, Trump may push for India to ramp up imports of American oil, a complex matter given India's current consumption patterns that have shifted in light of the global oil market changes following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Energy investments could also feature prominently in their conversations, with Modi likely seeking Trump's support for the development of India's nuclear energy sector, amid ongoing amendments to its nuclear liability laws. Such investments could align with India's goal to meet substantial energy needs through renewable sources by 2030.

Technological collaboration will also be relevant, especially in light of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) set forth under Biden, which aims to bolster coordination between the US and India. Modi may seek reassurances from both Trump and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz on the continuation of this strategic partnership. Furthermore, discussions on maintaining the H-1B visa regime, essential for many skilled Indian workers in the US, may arise.

Other foreign policy issues, including India's strategic ties with Iran and its role in regional conflicts like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, may also come under review. Modi's approach of advocating for an end to the Ukrainian conflict without directly criticizing Russia aligns with Trump's sentiments, potentially positioning India as a mediator if the conditions allow.

Despite the seriousness of these discussions, maintaining a constructive atmosphere will be vital. Their mutual commitment to the Indo-Pacific Quad, a strategic alliance with Japan and Australia aimed at countering China, will likely serve as a unifying theme. As the host for this year's quad meeting, Modi may extend an invitation for Trump to visit India, a trip that could further cement their partnership beyond the immediate transactional focus of the Washington talks.