Sweden Identifies Russia as Primary Security Threat

In its comprehensive security report, Sweden's security service, Sapo, has labeled Russia as the most significant threat to its national security, highlighting increased intelligence activities aimed at undermining NATO unity.

Sweden's security service, Sapo, has declared that the nation considers Russia to be the primary threat to its national security, citing the aggressive posture of the Kremlin towards the West. Released in Sapo's annual report, the agency reveals that the country’s recent accession to NATO has indeed bolstered its security framework; however, it has simultaneously attracted heightened Russian intelligence operations.

The report indicates that the current security landscape in Sweden is precarious and could deteriorate further, as foreign entities engage in increasingly aggressive tactics and hybrid warfare coupled with a rise in violent extremism. Head of Sapo, Charlotte von Essen, articulated concerns that there is a "tangible risk" for worsening security conditions, which may develop in unpredictable ways.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sweden sought NATO membership, viewing it as a vital shield against potential aggression from Russia. In January 2022, the civil defence minister had warned that conflict could emerge in Sweden as a consequence of growing Russian hostilities.

Sapo’s latest assessment revealed that Russia's intelligence efforts primarily target the discrediting of NATO solidarity, undermining Western support for Ukraine, and attempting to bypass sanctions imposed by the international community. The report characterizes Russia's operations as becoming "increasingly offensive and risk-prone" due to the fortification of Swedish and broader European defense networks.

The agency noted that Russian operatives leverage a vast array of resources and platforms for intelligence gathering, while also coping with limitations brought on by the expulsion of intelligence officers. von Essen urged Swedish citizens to remain alert against "widespread anti-state narratives and conspiracy theories," which threaten to destabilize societal cohesion.

Within the report, Sapo also highlighted anomalous occurrences concerning infrastructure, hinting at potential foreign involvement in disruptions of critical undersea cables and gas pipelines that have been sabotaged since the Ukrainian invasion, prompting NATO to initiate an observation mission in these waters. The most recent breach was recorded last month near Gotland, Sweden's largest island.

Sapo's analysis extends beyond Russia, as it identifies both Iran and China as significant threats to national security. Last year, Iranian intelligence was accused of infiltrating a messaging service to disseminate 15,000 messages to Swedish citizens in response to a series of Quran burnings. The agency’s 2025 forecast cited cyber-attacks, technology theft, and surveillance of foreign dissidents living in Sweden as notable external threats.

The looming danger of terrorism was also emphasized in the report. The nature of this threat is diversifying and now encompasses not only ideologically motivated actors but also violence incited by foreign entities and youth radicalized online. Von Essen noted the growing trend of nations, particularly Russia and Iran, inciting young individuals to engage in violent acts.

Serious terror attacks have been observed recently in France, Germany, and Austria. In Sweden, the nation continues to grapple with the aftermath of its deadliest shooting in Orebro last month, where a gunman took the lives of nine individuals at an education center. Sapo remains on high alert regarding terrorism, maintaining the threat level at four on a five-point scale, underscoring the urgency of addressing violent Islamist extremism and right-wing terrorism as ongoing challenges.