Trump’s Economic Promises: A Reality Check Ahead**

As Donald Trump embarks on another term, his ambitious promises for the U.S. economy face scrutiny from analysts and supporters alike, raising questions about their feasibility.**

Donald Trump has set forth a vision for substantial changes to the United States economy, presenting aggressive plans aimed to combat inflation, impose tariffs, reduce taxes, and trim government size. This ambitious agenda, he claims, would spur a significant economic revival and restore faith in the American dream. "We're at the beginning of a great, beautiful golden age of business," Trump declared during a recent speech at Mar-a-Lago. Yet, as he prepares to implement his proposals, experts caution that many of his strategies may be more likely to hinder than help the economy.

One of Trump's core promises involves tackling inflation, stating, "Prices will come down." However, this pledge has raised eyebrows, as economic history shows that deflation typically occurs during crises. While inflation rates have dipped, completely eradicating inflation can prove challenging. Trump's assertion is tied to an expansion of U.S. oil and gas production to lower energy costs, although analysts contend that the broader forces driving inflation often lie beyond presidential control.

Furthermore, John Cochrane, an economist at the Hoover Institution, points out the potential discord within Trump’s coalition. He highlights the conflicting interests of traditional pro-business advocates and "nationalists," who emphasize border control and international competitiveness. "Both camps can't get what they want," he remarks, underscoring uncertainty about the economic future.

Trump’s plans extend to imposing tariffs, with promises of a blanket border tax commencing at 10% on all imports, escalating to over 60% for Chinese goods. Although some advisers suggest using tariffs as negotiation tools, analysts warn of the economic dangers. Tariffs could lead to increased prices for American consumers and retaliatory measures from foreign nations. With the U.S. nearing the end of a long economic expansion, the timing of such aggressive trade policies raises concerns over potential impacts on growth, predicting a 0.6% decline by mid-2025 according to Oxford Economics.

Concerning taxation and government spending, Trump envisions a growth strategy featuring lower taxes, less regulation, and a smaller federal footprint. However, experts caution that effectively trimming regulations may not unfold as swiftly as he anticipates. Additionally, while Trump is expected to lengthen expiring tax cuts likely to add an estimated $4.5 trillion to national debt, concerns within the Republican party regarding already high debt levels may complicate execution.

As these discussions unfold, it’s clear that Trump's supporters hold varied expectations. Ben Maurer, a lifelong Republican, expresses the importance of revitalizing American manufacturing over outright tariffs, while advocating for strategic economic policies. As Trump moves forward, the confluence of lofty promises and economic realities will shape the trajectory of his presidency and its impact on the U.S. economy.

Additional reporting by Ana Faguy.