Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts Could Lead to 14 Million Deaths by 2030, Study Warns

Wed Jul 02 2025 14:42:46 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)
Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts Could Lead to 14 Million Deaths by 2030, Study Warns

Controversial funding reductions may devastate global health efforts, particularly among children.


The latest research highlights a potential humanitarian crisis as US foreign aid cuts threaten millions of lives, igniting global concern.

President Donald Trump’s decision to slash US foreign humanitarian aid could lead to a staggering 14 million additional deaths globally by the year 2030, as outlined in a recent study published in The Lancet medical journal. Alarmingly, a significant portion of those at risk—approximately one-third—are projected to be children, as per the research team led by Davide Rasella from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health.

Low- and middle-income nations are set to face a humanitarian shock “comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict,” Rasella warned. In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio disclosed that over 80% of all programs at the US Agency for International Development (USAID) were terminated, under the premise of eliminating perceived wasteful expenditures.

These controversial funding cuts, condemned internationally by numerous humanitarian organizations, were implemented under the oversight of Elon Musk, who was then at the forefront of efforts to reduce the federal workforce. Throughout his second term, Trump has maintained a stance prioritizing an "America First" approach, aiming to realign overseas spending with domestic interests.

The ramifications of these cuts, according to Rasella’s team, threaten to undo two decades of cardiovascular health progress in vulnerable populations. Their model predicts that the suspension of funding—projected at a staggering 83% reduction—could result in an avoidable death toll surpassing 14 million by the end of the decade, with more than 4.5 million of these being children under five years old.

As these findings come to light, they coincide with a United Nations-led aid conference in Seville, Spain, which represents the largest such gathering in a decade. The United States, recognized as the most significant global provider of humanitarian aid, has traditionally operated in upwards of 60 countries, disbursing approximately $68 billion in international assistance in 2023 alone.

USAID's role has been deemed critical for the global aid framework. Following the announcement of the cuts, numerous other nations, including the UK, France, and Germany, have begun to scale back their contributions as well. Humanitarian organizations have voiced strong opposition, and the UN has stated that the international humanitarian sector is currently undergoing the most profound funding reductions in its history.

According to statements released by Rubio, about 1,000 remaining US programs will be managed “more effectively” under the State Department with congressional consultations. However, reports from UN officials indicate worsening conditions on the ground. Recently, a UN representative noted that hundreds of thousands of individuals are "slowly starving" in Kenyan refugee camps, with aid cuts resulting in the lowest food rations ever recorded.

In Kakuma, a hospital in northwestern Kenya, BBC reporters observed the agonizing effects of malnutrition, as documented in a heartbreaking case of a baby exhibiting severe signs of distress.

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