Clarity on Ukraine's Multinational Force: A Reassurance, Not a Peacekeeping Initiative

Recent discussions surrounding a potential troop deployment to Ukraine have highlighted that this initiative is intended as a reassurance force. With a focus on air and naval security, the multinational force will assist Ukraine without actively enforcing peace agreements or monitoring ceasefires.

The potential troop deployment to Ukraine being contemplated in London is discussed among diplomatic and defense officials as a "reassurance force" rather than a "peacekeeping force." Dubbed the Multinational Force Ukraine (MFU), its mission centers on consolidating any ceasefire agreements and fostering long-term trust in Ukraine, providing essential air cover and a naval presence in the Black Sea to support shipping and trade.

While the MFU is likely to involve around 20,000 troops, its numbers are insufficient to engage directly in peace enforcement operations. Rather, the coalition troops, assembled from willing nations, would focus on securing urban centers, critical ports, and energy infrastructures. One tentative strategy suggests that the MFU will avoid operations in the eastern regions near the frontline, a move seen as a way to reassure Russia that the deployment is not intended as an offensive threat.

Repeatedly, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin officials have expressed that they would reject any ceasefire negotiations should European or allied forces be stationed in Ukraine. Sources have emphasized that this multinational initiative should strictly not be classified as a peacekeeping operation. Traditional peacekeeping forces are neutral, dependent on the agreements between conflicting parties, and resort to defensive force only when necessary, which diverges from the MFU's proactive support for Ukraine.

Presently, there are no expectations for the multinational troops to monitor or enforce ceasefires. This responsibility will likely fall to Ukrainian forces, bolstered by Western surveillance systems. The notion of a "tripwire force"—a smaller contingent designed to deter enemy aggression without provoking escalation—is not being considered due to the disparity in troop strength between Ukraine, which can call upon nearly a million military members, and Russia, which fields even larger numbers.

Ongoing discussions emphasize how best to augment Ukrainian capabilities, particularly in aerial defense, with considerations for which nations can contribute fighter jets. Additionally, securing the Black Sea for safe navigation remains a priority, focusing on clearing shipping lanes of mines and establishing a capable naval force.

A significant variable in these plans is the level of support that the United States might offer in terms of air, satellite, or intelligence coverage for the prospective European ground force. Currently, the U.S. has indicated a reluctance to serve as a military "backstop." Thus, European allies are encouraged to maximize their operational effectiveness independently, hoping to create a sufficient coalition that might sway U.S. support once concrete plans are in place.

Ultimately, all initiatives hinge on the establishment of a ceasefire in Ukraine. While U.S. officials express cautious optimism, many within Ukraine remain doubtful about Russian intentions towards ending hostilities.