### Summary: The suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty by India following a recent terrorist attack has sparked fears over water conflicts with Pakistan. While experts suggest that holding back river water is impractical, India may alter existing infrastructure in ways that could negatively impact Pakistan's water supply, particularly during dry seasons.
### Title: India's Water Strategy: A Potential Weapon Against Pakistan?
### Title: India's Water Strategy: A Potential Weapon Against Pakistan?
### Description: As tensions rise over a recent attack in Kashmir, India suspends the Indus Waters Treaty, raising concerns about water flow implications for Pakistan.
The Indus river, which flows through both India and Pakistan, is at the center of a controversial water-sharing dilemma following India's suspension of the historic Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). This suspension comes in the wake of a devastating attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, further heightening already tense relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
The IWT, established in 1960, survived two major wars and was regarded as a cornerstone of trans-boundary water management, splitting the six primary rivers of the Indus basin based on geopolitical implications. Under this treaty, India controls three eastern rivers—the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—while Pakistan has rights to the western rivers, which include the Indus itself. The recent suspension reflects broader grievances, as India accuses Pakistan of facilitating cross-border terrorism, a claim that Pakistan vehemently denies.
While India's government asserts that the treaty is outdated due to changing climatic conditions and water needs—such as irrigation, drinking water, and hydropower—the suspension raises critical questions about its actual capacity to manipulate water flow. Experts assert that halting the natural flow of the Indus and its tributaries would be nearly impossible during peak flow periods, due to India's inadequate storage capacity and infrastructure. "The infrastructure India has is mostly run-of-the-river hydropower plants that do not store large volumes," says Himanshu Thakkar, a regional water expert.
Despite these limitations, the Indian government could potentially modify or expand its existing infrastructure to control water without notifying Pakistan, now freed from treaty obligations to share project details. However, experts warn that this could not only lead to ecological damage but also exacerbate tensions, particularly during Pakistan’s dry seasons when their water demands are greatest.
Former IWT commissioner Pradeep Kumar Saxena highlighted that Indian regulations require the sharing of hydrological data with Pakistan, necessary for irrigation planning and flood management. With India's recent pause, critics fear the flow of critical data may stall, impacting Pakistan’s ability to prepare for floods or secure water for agriculture and living needs.
The threat of a so-called "water bomb" looms, wherein India could possibly release water suddenly, causing potential devastation downstream—though this could also flood Indian territories. Moreover, with China's growing influence in regional water management—given that the Indus originates in Tibet—India's shifting strategies raise concerns over long-term water security for both countries.
While nothing has changed on the ground regarding physical water flow yet, the atmosphere surrounding the issue remains fraught with uncertainty and potential conflict as both nations navigate this complex geopolitical landscape.
