Russia-Azerbaijan Relations Deteriorate Amid Turbulent Developments

Tensions have dramatically escalated between Russia and Azerbaijan following the deaths of brothers Huseyn and Ziyaddin Safarov while in Russian custody. The two men were detained as part of an investigation into a series of unsolved mafia-style assassinations that have plagued the Ural city of Yekaterinburg for over 25 years. While one brother reportedly died from heart failure, the circumstances surrounding the death of the second brother remain unclear. In response to their deaths, the Azerbaijani prosecutor's office has alleged torture and proclaimed the initiation of an investigation, directly contesting the Russian narrative.

This incident has reignited long-standing grievances and shed light on a growing diplomatic rift that threatens to diminish Russia's influence, which has historically been solid within Azerbaijan. Once viewed as an ally, Azerbaijan's reaction to the deaths indicates a significant shift in relations; many observers have noted a palpable sense of betrayal in Baku. Pro-government media in Azerbaijan accused Moscow of engaging in oppressive tactics against ethnic minorities as a means to uphold totalitarian governance, exemplifying rising discontent.

This downturn follows a period of relative collaboration; in 2022, prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Moscow and Baku formalized a “declaration on allied interaction.” However, recent developments suggest Azerbaijan’s unwavering loyalty to Russia may be eroding, which raises concerns about the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus going forward. The fallout from this incident may see Azerbaijan recalibrate its foreign policy, seeking closer ties with alternative powers in the region.