Winners and Losers from the New UK-EU Deal: A Comprehensive Analysis

This article provides a detailed examination of the key beneficiaries and those adversely impacted by the newly ratified UK-EU agreement, highlighting both opportunities and challenges.

A deal to "reset" the relationship between the UK and the EU post-Brexit has been clinched at a summit held in London, addressing a variety of crucial topics such as defense, fishing rights, food trade, and youth mobility. BBC Verify delved into the details of the pact, identifying potential winners and losers across different sectors.

**Food Trade**
**Winner:** UK food exporters to the EU
**Loser:** UK citizens opposed to EU regulations

Post-Brexit regulations have made trade more complicated, with UK exports to the EU dropping by 34% in 2024 compared to 2019. A proposed joint food safety agreement aims to diminish current barriers, potentially easing checks and reviving bans on certain products, notably raw meats. However, this comes with stipulations requiring the UK to adhere to EU food standards, known as "dynamic alignment," and a financial contribution whose specifics remain undisclosed.

**Fishing Rights**
**Winner:** EU fishing vessels
**Loser:** UK fishermen wanting annual negotiations

Though fishing represents only 0.04% of the UK's GDP, it holds political weight. The new agreement grants EU fishing vessels an extended 12-year access to UK waters, surpassing expectations. Some UK fishing groups find the deal unfavorable, wishing for annual discussions rather than an extended term, fearing it diminishes their bargaining capacity in future negotiations.

**Youth Mobility**
**Winner:** Young people from both the UK and EU
**Loser:** Critics concerned about immigration impacts

A potential youth experience scheme could enhance the ability of young people to work and study across both regions, reminiscent of pre-Brexit circumstances. Nevertheless, concerns arise regarding immigration numbers, with analysts predicting a short-term increase in net migration that may eventually stabilize.

**eGates at Airports**
**Winner:** British tourists
**Loser:** Travelers fearing long queues

Aspects of the agreement suggest that UK nationals might gain access to eGates at EU airports, streamlining border crossing. The implementation timeline remains unclear, with expectations for a gradual roll-out alongside the new Entry/Exit System set for October.

**Defense Contracts**
**Winner:** UK defense firms
**Loser:** EU companies aiming for contract revenues

An EU initiative to bolster security funding may open doors for UK defense manufacturers, positioning them to compete for contracts previously limited to EU-based firms. The UK is a significant player in global arms exports, and pending details of the fund's structure will clarify how British companies can engage.

While the UK-EU agreement represents strides in restoring cooperation, the implications are intricate, and the balance of benefits remains delicately poised.