Despite the low probability, astronomers detail the potential damage of a direct hit from the smaller asteroid 2024 YR4, which could affect major cities if it enters Earth's atmosphere.
Rising Threat from Asteroid 2024 YR4: Analyzing the Risks to Earth
Rising Threat from Asteroid 2024 YR4: Analyzing the Risks to Earth
Experts warn that asteroid 2024 YR4 is now more likely than Apophis to impact Earth, with a 3.1% chance of collision in 2032.
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Astronomers have raised alarms regarding the asteroid known as 2024 YR4, which is now regarded as the most probable sizable space rock expected to potentially impact our planet. Discovered in December, this asteroid measures between 130 and 300 feet in length and is anticipated to fly extremely close to Earth in 2032. Currently, the chances of this asteroid striking Earth on December 22, 2032, are estimated at 3.1 percent.
This probability exceeds even the once-feared asteroid Apophis, first identified in 2004. Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029, but later evaluations determined that the likelihood of a collision over the next 100 years has dropped to zero. All the same, the mere mention of such threats can be unsettling.
While 2024 YR4 is significantly smaller than Apophis, it is still capable of causing substantial destruction depending on its entry point into Earth's atmosphere. A direct collision, while unlikely, could leave city scarring or destruction in its wake. The asteroid's projected trajectory primarily runs over uninhabited water, though there are concerns regarding its close proximity to populous cities, including Bogotá, Lagos, and Mumbai.
The impact severity is associated with an asteroid’s kinetic energy, which largely depends on its mass. Given the limited observational data available, scientists can only offer rough estimates regarding 2024 YR4's mass and density. According to Mark Boslough, a physicist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, without clearer density data, the potential energy this asteroid could unleash, whether it impacts directly or detonates in the atmosphere, remains uncertain.
Astronomers have raised alarms regarding the asteroid known as 2024 YR4, which is now regarded as the most probable sizable space rock expected to potentially impact our planet. Discovered in December, this asteroid measures between 130 and 300 feet in length and is anticipated to fly extremely close to Earth in 2032. Currently, the chances of this asteroid striking Earth on December 22, 2032, are estimated at 3.1 percent.
This probability exceeds even the once-feared asteroid Apophis, first identified in 2004. Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029, but later evaluations determined that the likelihood of a collision over the next 100 years has dropped to zero. All the same, the mere mention of such threats can be unsettling.
While 2024 YR4 is significantly smaller than Apophis, it is still capable of causing substantial destruction depending on its entry point into Earth's atmosphere. A direct collision, while unlikely, could leave city scarring or destruction in its wake. The asteroid's projected trajectory primarily runs over uninhabited water, though there are concerns regarding its close proximity to populous cities, including Bogotá, Lagos, and Mumbai.
The impact severity is associated with an asteroid’s kinetic energy, which largely depends on its mass. Given the limited observational data available, scientists can only offer rough estimates regarding 2024 YR4's mass and density. According to Mark Boslough, a physicist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, without clearer density data, the potential energy this asteroid could unleash, whether it impacts directly or detonates in the atmosphere, remains uncertain.
