Arrest of SPLM-IO General Sparks Fears of Renewed Conflict in South Sudan

The recent arrest of a high-ranking general from South Sudan's main opposition party has raised alarms over the stability of the nation, with implications for the fragile peace deal that ended years of civil war.

The arrest of General Gabriel Duop Lam, a key figure in South Sudan's main opposition party, has stirred concerns regarding the stability of the country's tenuous peace agreement. An opposition spokesperson labeled the general's detention as a "grave violation" of the peace deal that concluded a five-year civil war.

Lam, who oversees the military branch of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO), was taken into custody earlier this week alongside several senior SPLM-IO officials, all of whom are part of Vice-President Riek Machar's coalition. The arrests have sparked fears of a resurgence of conflict, especially considering the historical rift between Machar and President Salva Kiir that ignited the civil war in 2013.

SPLM-IO spokesperson, Puok Both Baluang, expressed uncertainty about the whereabouts and condition of the detained officials and articulated their commitment to preventing further escalation. "We need our partners in peace to demonstrate the political will to assure that this country will not go back to war again," he emphasized during an interview with the BBC.

In response, President Kiir's administration has downplayed the situation, with government spokesperson Michael Makuei insisting that the country would not revert to warfare and attributing the arrests to legal issues faced by the opposition figures.

Since gaining independence from Sudan in 2011, South Sudan has struggled with internal strife, culminating in a civil war that caused 400,000 deaths and displacing approximately 2.5 million people. A peace agreement was reached in 2018, yet ongoing tensions remain.

General Lam's arrest coincides with reports of renewed fighting involving the White Army militia, which recently captured a pivotal town in the Upper Nile state, leading to clashes with government troops. Members of the national army loyal to Kiir have accused Machar's faction of complicity with the rebels.

Analysts warn that failure to adhere to the peace agreement could trigger a relapse into conflict. Ter Manyang, director of the Juba-based Center for Peace and Advocacy, cautioned that "the country is likely to slide to war unless the situation is managed by the top leadership."

With national elections scheduled for 2026 after years of delays, the potential for renewed violence and instability looms large over South Sudan's political landscape.