India's Diplomatic Pivot: Engaging with the Taliban Figures Amid Changing Geopolitics

After years of estrangement from the Taliban, India has initiated diplomatic discussions, signaling a strategic adaptation to evolving geopolitical realities in Afghanistan and the broader region.

In a notable diplomatic move, India's foreign secretary Vikram Misri recently met with Amir Khan Muttaqi, the acting foreign minister of the Taliban, in Dubai. This marks the highest-level contact between India and the Taliban since the latter’s return to power, following the fall of Kabul in August 2021. The meeting highlights a possible recalibration of India’s foreign policy toward a regime it had previously shunned.

India’s engagement comes over three years after its significant investment in Afghanistan’s democratic institutions was upended, shifting the regional balance of power more favorably for its rivals, particularly Pakistan and China. With fears of heightened security threats, India aims to reestablish a foothold in Afghanistan, with Misri emphasizing the need to strengthen political and economic ties. The Taliban has identified India as a "significant regional and economic power," and discussions reportedly included enhancing trade and utilizing Iran's Chabahar port, a strategic route to bypass Pakistan’s dominant ports.

This diplomatic outreach is significant, with experts noting that it grants a semblance of legitimacy to the Taliban government, filling a vacuum left since no country has formally recognized the regime. Regions like China have adopted more aggressive engagement, while India appears more cautious with its intentions grounded in historic ties and humanitarian assistance that span two decades. As Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar noted, despite the Taliban's drastic alterations of governance, India maintains long-standing connections with Afghan civic society.

Notably, the context of India’s outreach coincides with rising tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, driven by the Pakistan-based Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Recent Pakistani airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan have drawn condemnation from the Taliban, fostering an environment where India's engagement can be opportunistic. Experts suggest that this relationship may serve to check Pakistan's influence in the region and restore some measure of stability in South Asia.

While India’s aspirations to improve connectivity and advance its Central Asian reach through Afghanistan are clear, the risks associated with engaging a historically violent regime remain a point of concern. Critics warn that aligning closely with the Taliban involves navigating the complexities of a government with deep ties to terrorism, while others advocate for engagement as a means to pressure the Taliban into reforming its governance practices, particularly regarding women's rights.

In conclusion, India’s recent overtures to the Taliban underscore a significant shift in diplomatic strategy, aiming to balance geopolitical realities while attempting to preserve its historical connections and national interests in a turbulent landscape. As this complex relationship develops, questions around trust and future collaboration with a regime many view with skepticism remain at the forefront of India’s foreign policy discussions.