The Complex Dynamics of Trump's Return: Implications for Africa

As Donald Trump prepares for a possible return to the presidency, his unconventional approach towards international relations, characterized by transactional politics, creates both challenges and opportunities for the African continent, signaling a shift from previous multilateral strategies.

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House raises critical questions about his approach to Africa and its implications for international diplomatic relations. Although it's challenging to anticipate Trump's decisions, a few patterns are discernible: his aversion to traditional diplomacy, favoring a more transactional and populist approach, creates a landscape fraught with both opportunities and threats for Africa.

During the Obama era, the focus was on collaborating with the African Union (AU) to ensure sustainable funding for UN peacekeeping missions across Africa. The AU aimed to create an "African peace and security architecture" that included proactive conflict prevention, mediation efforts, and peacekeeping endeavors rooted in established international norms. These efforts, unfortunately, receded significantly during Trump's first term, leading to waning authorization for new missions and the closure of existing ones, like those in Darfur and Mali, further exacerbated by the Biden administration's continuity of this trend.

Historically, the notion of "liberal peace" advocating democracy, justice, and open markets formed the bedrock of American strategy towards Africa. While the AU initially embraced this multilateralism, they resisted what they perceived as lectures on governance from Western powers. Notably, some African leaders preferred Trump's more direct and pragmatic approach.

The "Trump Doctrine" entailed sidelining multilateralism in exchange for direct negotiations with key allies, leading to initiatives like the Abraham Accords with several Middle Eastern nations. Trump's administration consistently exhibited a marked disapproval of China's expanding influence in Africa and showed reluctance towards deploying military resources.

A major flashpoint embroiling nations included Ethiopia's construction of a large dam threatening relations with Egypt. Trump, on occasion, appeared to take sides, notably using the leverage of American aid to determine the outcome of disputes related to water resources. This unchecked diplomatic maneuvering is emblematic of Trump's desire for rapid and apparent benefits rather than long-term solutions.

Trade, security, and aid strategies now fall into a paradoxical category of "illiberal peace," where direct political engagement occurs without due regard to established principles of democracy or human rights. For instance, Sudan's transition following the fall of Omar al-Bashir exemplified this, where potential sanctions relief hinged on a sale of peace favors tied to diplomatic recognition of Israel.

Looking ahead, Trump's hypothetical second term may follow this pattern, leading to unpredictable alliances and geopolitics driven predominantly by immediate results rather than principled cooperation or multilateral consensus. The evolving conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, and other regions call for a level of decisive intervention, but the transactional approach raises concerns over exacerbated tensions among involved parties.

Moreover, Trump's past military strategies suggest minimal interest in prolonged military commitments or addressing emerging threats from groups like al-Shabab without significant provocations. The prospect of cutting aid or collaborating with militant elements could invite further turmoil rather than cultivating stability across the continent.

Notably, African nations find themselves increasingly entangled with various forms of diplomatic and military arrangements reflecting their individual ambitions and security needs, further complicating how the continent engages with U.S. policies. Given the backdrop of the upcoming AU Commission elections, the choice of leadership will likely reflect these emerging dynamics and the challenges faced in navigating the complexities arising from Trump's potential return.

Ultimately, this evolving scenario represents a juxtaposition between the need for principled, collaborative frameworks and the immediate practicalities demanded by the current political landscape, highlighting the precarious future of diplomacy under a Trump-led administration.