Mark Carney's Visit to Washington: A Quest for Trade Clarity

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is heading to Washington for his second visit this year - this time with the more modest goal of getting trade talks back on track.

Negotiations have dragged on over the summer, blowing past an August deadline set by the two leaders. But few details have been released about the discussions or the issues preventing a deal.

Canada is the only G7 country yet to reach a trade deal with Trump this year - though unlike other allies, Ottawa is not in a rush given carve-outs under the US-Canada-Mexico Free Trade Agreement.

• Canada to drop some of its retaliatory tariffs on the US
• After a blown deadline, what next for US-Canada trade?

But Tuesday's tête-à-tête comes as Trump has renewed talk of making Canada a US state, while Carney's main opposition figure has said anything short of reaching a trade deal on this trip would be considered a failure.

Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said last week that progress is being made toward an agreement, and media reports suggest there may be some relief from the punishing US steel tariffs to come.

Insiders, however, have hinted at frustration over a lack of clarity from the White House on what a trade and security deal with Canada could look like.

If you look at all the different things that Trump is engaged in, is this right near the top? Probably not, said Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat and a member of Carleton University's Expert Group on Canada-US Relations.

That's part of the reason why, I think, the prime minister is going down [to Washington], to say 'give us your attention', Mr Robertson told the BBC.

Carney's office has billed Tuesday's meeting as a working visit focused on finding common ground on the economy and security, though no major breakthroughs are expected, White House officials told the BBC.

Face-to-face time with the president, who finds personal relationships important, could also help ease the trade stalemate, noted Jamie Tronnes, the executive director of the Washington-based Center for North American Prosperity and Security.

At the White House on Monday, Trump said only that I guess he's going to ask about tariffs.

A lot of companies from Canada are moving into the United States, the president said in the Oval Office. Everybody is moving back to the US.

When asked whether he would change his position on any tariffs, Trump replied quickly: I'm right.

Carney has faced domestic pressure to secure a deal with the US that would lower tariffs, especially for hard-hit sectors like steel and lumber.

In an open letter to the prime minister on Monday ahead of his Washington visit, Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre urged Carney to negotiate a win.

Trump has imposed a 35% levy on Canadian imports, but has allowed a carve-out for goods that fall under the USMCA trade pact. He has also imposed separate sector-specific levies, including 50% on metals and 25% on vehicles.

Carney has sought to reassure Canadians that a vast majority of trade with the US - 85% of it - remains duty-free thanks to the USMCA exemption.

The prime minister has also been criticised for softening his Elbows Up election pitch for dealing with the Trump administration, referencing an ice hockey metaphor for playing aggressively.

Instead, Carney has made what some describe as concessions since taking office: ending a Digital Services Tax that Trump openly disliked, dropping most of Canada's retaliatory tariffs on the US, and withdrawing two decades-old legal disputes over American duties on Canadian softwood lumber.

Mr Robertson called it the price of admission to keep trade talks going.

Still, Carney has described the relationship with Trump as good and said the two routinely text.

This meeting comes as consultations begin ahead of an upcoming review of the long-standing USMCA free trade agreement. US Trade Representative Jameison Greer has signalled that this review may be conducted separately with Canada and Mexico, as the US relationship with either countries is different in so many ways, he said.

Pete Hoekstra, US ambassador to Canada, told an Ottawa audience in September that Washington had hoped to negotiate a bigger deal with Canada, one that covers both trade and defence.

The Carney government has had to walk a tightrope in dealing with public dismay over US relations. Tourism data show the number of Canadians visiting the US has fallen for seven consecutive months, and an Ipsos poll found six in 10 Canadians believe their country can never trust the US the same way again.

Determining what the US wants out of the talks has been difficult to decipher, but it's likely that Washington wants to pressure Ottawa for firm commitments on issues beyond trade, such as defence and the shared border.

As Carney works to maintain dialogue with Trump, he has spent the summer visiting allies like the UK and Mexico to shore up support and find new markets for Canada.

However, experts recognize that Canada must secure some sort of deal with Trump to protect its economy, as 75% of its goods are sold to the US, and thousands of jobs are at stake in vulnerable sectors.

If implemented at full-force, the US tariffs could rupture Canada's economy.

In the meantime, as Canada strives to find new opportunities, it’s crucial to maintain as much of the current agreement in place.